U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar gained on safe haven flows overnight withthe EUR/USD sold off dramatically after exit polls suggested no clear majorityin the recent Italian Elections. Stocks markets reversed and the Yen crosseswere sold aggressively across the board with some capitulation flows seen in lateNew York trade. Looking ahead, December Case Shiller House Prices forecast at 6.6%vs. 5.5% previously. Fed Chief Bernanke Speaks before the Senate BankingCommittee.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD rallied to 1.3270 before crashing on the hungItalian parliament polls and we are targeting a 1.3000 break if the selling continuesinto Europe. EUR/JPY fell over 600 pips from the Monday open and was thecatalyst for the USD/JPY slide which added to the EUR/USD selling pressure. Themarket will be closely watching the developments in coming days to see if a politicaldeal is made and what comments the new leader makes regarding recent austerity. The Sterling (GBP) defied gravity rallying as EUR/GBP slumped through0.8600 in the Asian session Tuesday from the lofty 0.8800 level early Monday morningwith the market caught heavily long. The recent selloff on the GBP/USD hitfresh lows yesterday on the AAA rating downgrade. Looking ahead, CBI Distributive Trades forecast at 16 vs. 17previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY was caught up in the EUR/JPY storm andsuffered a dramatic move in the thin trading hours between the close of NewYork and the start of the Asian session. The Japanese emerged with the usualrhetoric about keeping volatility low at the start of the Asian session Tuesdayand we have seen a large bounce back above Y92. Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was able to ignore the volatility withthe usually risk sensitive currency sidelined even with the collapse of theAUD/JPY cross. EUR/AUD selling was the main support but also the hawkishGovernor Stevens talk last week still underpinning with the RBA seen unlikelyto cut next Tuesday.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold is getting support from the increased sovereignrisk as the hung Italian elections ratcheted up risk aversion. OIL/USD fell another $1 down to $92 where it consolidatedahead of the Bernanke Speech tonight which will focus on the US economy andmonetary policy.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD to test 1.3000key Psychological support?
USD/JPY Bulls getting mauled,will Japanese Jawboning help?
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 26-FEB-2013
Italian Elections Reigniting Eurozone Debt Crisis
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar gained on safe haven flows overnight withthe EUR/USD sold off dramatically after exit polls suggested no clear majorityin the recent Italian Elections. Stocks markets reversed and the Yen crosseswere sold aggressively across the board with some capitulation flows seen in lateNew York trade. Looking ahead, December Case Shiller House Prices forecast at 6.6%vs. 5.5% previously. Fed Chief Bernanke Speaks before the Senate BankingCommittee.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD rallied to 1.3270 before crashing on the hungItalian parliament polls and we are targeting a 1.3000 break if the selling continuesinto Europe. EUR/JPY fell over 600 pips from the Monday open and was thecatalyst for the USD/JPY slide which added to the EUR/USD selling pressure. Themarket will be closely watching the developments in coming days to see if a politicaldeal is made and what comments the new leader makes regarding recent austerity. The Sterling (GBP) defied gravity rallying as EUR/GBP slumped through0.8600 in the Asian session Tuesday from the lofty 0.8800 level early Monday morningwith the market caught heavily long. The recent selloff on the GBP/USD hitfresh lows yesterday on the AAA rating downgrade. Looking ahead, CBI Distributive Trades forecast at 16 vs. 17previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY was caught up in the EUR/JPY storm andsuffered a dramatic move in the thin trading hours between the close of NewYork and the start of the Asian session. The Japanese emerged with the usualrhetoric about keeping volatility low at the start of the Asian session Tuesdayand we have seen a large bounce back above Y92. Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was able to ignore the volatility withthe usually risk sensitive currency sidelined even with the collapse of theAUD/JPY cross. EUR/AUD selling was the main support but also the hawkishGovernor Stevens talk last week still underpinning with the RBA seen unlikelyto cut next Tuesday.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold is getting support from the increased sovereignrisk as the hung Italian elections ratcheted up risk aversion. OIL/USD fell another $1 down to $92 where it consolidatedahead of the Bernanke Speech tonight which will focus on the US economy andmonetary policy.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD to test 1.3000key Psychological support?
USD/JPY Bulls getting mauled,will Japanese Jawboning help?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3000
1.3039
1.3050
1.3180
1.3280
USD/JPY
90.29
90.76
91.95
92.17
92.94
GBP/USD
1.4949
1.5073
1.5200
1.5330
1.5395
AUD/USD
1.0225
1.0262
1.0275
1.0314
1.0329
XAU/USD
1525
1550
1595
1600
1618
OIL/USD
90.00
90.00
91.90
92.50
95.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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