UK Loses AAA Rating, USD/JPY Soars on New Ultra DoveBOJ Chief
*Update HSBC February FlashManufacturing PMI misses at 50.4 vs. 52.2 f/c*
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar enjoyed strength across the board Monday aftera myriad of news over the weekend. Late on Friday at the close of New York wesaw UK downgraded by Moody’s with the financial epicenter losing its prized AAArating. The other major news over the weekend was the announcement fromJapanese PM Abe that he would be asking ADB Kuroda to be the new BOJ Chief andthat Ultra dove will be his Deputy. Looking ahead, no economic data tonight.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD managed a small rally in the US sessionbut this failed and we are back under 1.3200 Monday with the sellers still incontrol. Some concern about a possible hung Italian parliament and the effectit could have on reigniting the European debt crisis has been noted as opinionpolls suggest a very tight result at the weekend’s elections. The Sterling (GBP) was in the spotlight as rating agency Moody’s cutits AAA rating to AA1 stable. The reaction so far negative may lead to a rallywith the cut widely anticipated and sell the rumor buy the fact a game oftenplayed with such announcements. This could play out if the UK government or BOEcome out with hawkish comments or plans to reclaim its AAA rating sometime inthe future. Looking ahead, ECB Weidmann Speaks.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY has been surging in the Asian session on theannouncement of the BOJ Chief selections including Ultradove “radical’ Iwata asthe Deputy. The Yen crosses all piggy backed on the USD/JPY move but we haveseen substantial profit taking so far in Asia. EUR/JPY pops Y125 but failed atkey resistance and has fallen back to Y124.00. Australian Dollar (AUD)the AUD/USD toppedout at 1.0340 on Friday on the back of strong buying after RBA Governor Stevenstalked up the Australian economy and played down the high AUD. This is starkcontrast to the currency wars seen around the globe lately. AUD/JPY surged thismorning and is helping to keep the AUD/USD bears in check. Looking ahead, noeconomic data.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold is getting support after heavy selling inprevious 2 weeks with the Italian election uncertainty and fresh aggressive QEpromises from Japan support the precious metals outlook. OIL/USD spent the day consolidating losses from Thursdayfinding support at the $93 a barrel level.
Pairs to watch
GBP/USD Buy the rumor sellsthe Fact? Or Sell the rumor sell the fact?
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 25-FEB-2013
UK Loses AAA Rating, USD/JPY Soars on New Ultra DoveBOJ Chief
*Update HSBC February FlashManufacturing PMI misses at 50.4 vs. 52.2 f/c*
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar enjoyed strength across the board Monday aftera myriad of news over the weekend. Late on Friday at the close of New York wesaw UK downgraded by Moody’s with the financial epicenter losing its prized AAArating. The other major news over the weekend was the announcement fromJapanese PM Abe that he would be asking ADB Kuroda to be the new BOJ Chief andthat Ultra dove will be his Deputy. Looking ahead, no economic data tonight.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD managed a small rally in the US sessionbut this failed and we are back under 1.3200 Monday with the sellers still incontrol. Some concern about a possible hung Italian parliament and the effectit could have on reigniting the European debt crisis has been noted as opinionpolls suggest a very tight result at the weekend’s elections. The Sterling (GBP) was in the spotlight as rating agency Moody’s cutits AAA rating to AA1 stable. The reaction so far negative may lead to a rallywith the cut widely anticipated and sell the rumor buy the fact a game oftenplayed with such announcements. This could play out if the UK government or BOEcome out with hawkish comments or plans to reclaim its AAA rating sometime inthe future. Looking ahead, ECB Weidmann Speaks.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY has been surging in the Asian session on theannouncement of the BOJ Chief selections including Ultradove “radical’ Iwata asthe Deputy. The Yen crosses all piggy backed on the USD/JPY move but we haveseen substantial profit taking so far in Asia. EUR/JPY pops Y125 but failed atkey resistance and has fallen back to Y124.00. Australian Dollar (AUD)the AUD/USD toppedout at 1.0340 on Friday on the back of strong buying after RBA Governor Stevenstalked up the Australian economy and played down the high AUD. This is starkcontrast to the currency wars seen around the globe lately. AUD/JPY surged thismorning and is helping to keep the AUD/USD bears in check. Looking ahead, noeconomic data.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold is getting support after heavy selling inprevious 2 weeks with the Italian election uncertainty and fresh aggressive QEpromises from Japan support the precious metals outlook. OIL/USD spent the day consolidating losses from Thursdayfinding support at the $93 a barrel level.
Pairs to watch
GBP/USD Buy the rumor sellsthe Fact? Or Sell the rumor sell the fact?
USD/JPY Bulls targetingY95 high of Y94.80 so far?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3018
1.3122
1.3190
1.3246
1.3280
USD/JPY
92.78
92.92
94.10
94.22
95.00
GBP/USD
1.4949
1.5070
1.5130
1.5328
1.5425
AUD/USD
1.0225
1.0270
1.0280
1.0327
1.0352
XAU/USD
1525
1550
1583
1600
1618
OIL/USD
92.50
93.00
93.05
95.00
97.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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