*UPDATE* 23:50GMT Japanese FinMin Aso ‘No Plan to BuyForeign Bonds for Monetary Easing or change BOJ independence Law for the timebeing’
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a quiet US session with markets closed for President’sHoliday and there was little fresh news for traders to digest. The G20 statementcaused some Yen weakness in early Asia with USD/JPY breaking above Y94 but thiswas pared back with profit takers capping at Y94.20. The market returned infull force today with EUR/JPY and USD/JPY likely the main pairs in focus again.Looking ahead, NAHB Housing Market Sentiment forecast at 48 vs. 47 previously.
The Euro (EUR) was stable in a tight range on the major but madesmall gains against the Yen and the GBP. The highlight of the day was ECBDraghi speaking in Brussels where he commented again that the High Euro mayimpact the inflation statistics for Q1 and that general economic activity wasstill downbeat. Italian debt yields also increased on political uncertaintyfrom the upcoming elections on the 24th-25th February. The Sterling (GBP) Fresh trend lows where seen on Cable at 1.5440before we bounced back to 1.5460 in quiet US session trade. The market isselling the Pound on expectations of further easing from the BOE and commentsfrom Waele over the weekend confirmed this sentiment when stated the GBP hadfurther to fall to balance the UK economy.Looking ahead, February German ZEW Survey forecast at 35 vs. 31.5previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) The USD/JPY was once again in focus in the Asiansession with PM Abe right off the bat post G20 coming out swinging regardingthe easy monetary policy and the political willingness to achieve a 2%inflation target. He threatens to repel the BOJ independence law and stated hewould choose a new BOJ Governor that agreed with the Government’s inflationtarget. Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was weak but found support at 1.0280 andbounced back to 1.0310 by the end of the US session close. AUD/JPY issupporting and is pressuring resistance Y96.90. The medium term outlook is forRBA rate cuts and AUD to fall further but we need a catalyst to break largesupport at 1.0200 region. Looking ahead, February RBA Minutes Released.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold consolidated loses and bounced up to $1618oz beforesellers took control and we eased back to $1610oz and closed on weak footing. OIL/USD was quiet in a 70 pip range with the US traders awaywho generally provide most of the movement. Support at $95.30 has held on 3 occasionsand is now the key short term support.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY – To return to Uptrendor Range trade waiting for BOJ Governor Selection?
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 19-FEB-2013
US Holiday Market Quiet, ECD Draghi Downbeat
*UPDATE* 23:50GMT Japanese FinMin Aso ‘No Plan to BuyForeign Bonds for Monetary Easing or change BOJ independence Law for the timebeing’
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a quiet US session with markets closed for President’sHoliday and there was little fresh news for traders to digest. The G20 statementcaused some Yen weakness in early Asia with USD/JPY breaking above Y94 but thiswas pared back with profit takers capping at Y94.20. The market returned infull force today with EUR/JPY and USD/JPY likely the main pairs in focus again.Looking ahead, NAHB Housing Market Sentiment forecast at 48 vs. 47 previously.
The Euro (EUR) was stable in a tight range on the major but madesmall gains against the Yen and the GBP. The highlight of the day was ECBDraghi speaking in Brussels where he commented again that the High Euro mayimpact the inflation statistics for Q1 and that general economic activity wasstill downbeat. Italian debt yields also increased on political uncertaintyfrom the upcoming elections on the 24th-25th February. The Sterling (GBP) Fresh trend lows where seen on Cable at 1.5440before we bounced back to 1.5460 in quiet US session trade. The market isselling the Pound on expectations of further easing from the BOE and commentsfrom Waele over the weekend confirmed this sentiment when stated the GBP hadfurther to fall to balance the UK economy.Looking ahead, February German ZEW Survey forecast at 35 vs. 31.5previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) The USD/JPY was once again in focus in the Asiansession with PM Abe right off the bat post G20 coming out swinging regardingthe easy monetary policy and the political willingness to achieve a 2%inflation target. He threatens to repel the BOJ independence law and stated hewould choose a new BOJ Governor that agreed with the Government’s inflationtarget. Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was weak but found support at 1.0280 andbounced back to 1.0310 by the end of the US session close. AUD/JPY issupporting and is pressuring resistance Y96.90. The medium term outlook is forRBA rate cuts and AUD to fall further but we need a catalyst to break largesupport at 1.0200 region. Looking ahead, February RBA Minutes Released.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold consolidated loses and bounced up to $1618oz beforesellers took control and we eased back to $1610oz and closed on weak footing. OIL/USD was quiet in a 70 pip range with the US traders awaywho generally provide most of the movement. Support at $95.30 has held on 3 occasionsand is now the key short term support.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY – To return to Uptrendor Range trade waiting for BOJ Governor Selection?
AUD/USD –RBA minutes togive bears reason to sell?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3286
1.3307
1.3355
1.3415
1.3439
USD/JPY
91.96
92.22
93.90
94.00
94.41
GBP/USD
1.5375
1.5414
1.5475
1.5544
1.5666
AUD/USD
1.0238
1.0288
1.0315
1.0373
1.0385
XAU/USD
1580
1600
1612
1618
1655
OIL/USD
94.50
95.00
95.35
97.05
98.10
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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