U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market volatility continued overnight with theGBP/USD crashing to fresh trend lows and EUR/USD rallying before some bearishremarks from Europe sent the single currency back to opening levels near1.3450. Traders will be watching the BOJ closely today with the recent Yenweakness surely to be a main talking point at the meeting. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 360k vs. 366kpreviously. FOMC Members Tarullo and Bullard Speak.
The Euro (EUR) The EUR/USD was wacked around by rumors and negativereports out of Europe with talk that the ECB is worried about the effect of astrong Euro on the weaker countries in the region. The bullish outlook is beingundermined by the constant jawboning with another report suggesting a majorpolitical party in Germany was against the ESM being used to recapitalizebanks. Key Support is seen at 1.3370 on the daily. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was crushed lower by the BOE GovernorKings speech overnight. He commented that the limits of the monetary policy(cutting rates) leaves the door open for further stimulus (QE) in light ofinflation. Cable hit 1.5550 throughout his speech and has continued to fallwith little bounce to 1.5530 so far in Asia.Looking ahead, Q4 GDP Germany forecast at -0.5% vs. 0.2%. EU GDP forecast at -0.4% vs.-0.1% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY rallied off the Y93 level but profit takerscapped at Y93.80 and we have seen the major and EUR/JPY fall back ahead of theBOJ today. Some expect the BOJ to pay lip service to global concerns about therecent Yen weakness ahead of the G20 meeting on Saturday. New FED Member Georgefrom the US spoke overnight was concerned about the size of the FED balancesheet and this helped 10yr US Bond Yields Rally and further support the USD/JPYthis time from the USD side. Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was strong making a run at large stopabove 1.0360 before finding the sellers camped just above the level and fallingback 1.0340 in Asian trade today. The AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD are the main crossesmoving daily with buyers on the AUD/JPY fighting the EUR/AUD uptrend sellers.Looking ahead, BOJ Rate Announcementforecast to hold at 0.1% but attention will be onthe statement and press conference with outgoing BOJ Governor Shirakawa. UPDATEQ4 Japanese GDP forecast at -0.1% vs. -0.9% GDP previously Q/Q.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold’s attempted rally was stopped twice at $1654before reversing to $1640. OIL/USD consolidated the recent gains testing and closing abovethe $97 support.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY – Will the BOJSlow or Encourage the USD/JPY rally?
AUD/USD – is the recentbounce over? Can we reclaim 1.0370-1.0600 range?
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 14-FEB-2013
BOJ Main Event in Asia, GDP in Europe
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market volatility continued overnight with theGBP/USD crashing to fresh trend lows and EUR/USD rallying before some bearishremarks from Europe sent the single currency back to opening levels near1.3450. Traders will be watching the BOJ closely today with the recent Yenweakness surely to be a main talking point at the meeting. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 360k vs. 366kpreviously. FOMC Members Tarullo and Bullard Speak.
The Euro (EUR) The EUR/USD was wacked around by rumors and negativereports out of Europe with talk that the ECB is worried about the effect of astrong Euro on the weaker countries in the region. The bullish outlook is beingundermined by the constant jawboning with another report suggesting a majorpolitical party in Germany was against the ESM being used to recapitalizebanks. Key Support is seen at 1.3370 on the daily. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was crushed lower by the BOE GovernorKings speech overnight. He commented that the limits of the monetary policy(cutting rates) leaves the door open for further stimulus (QE) in light ofinflation. Cable hit 1.5550 throughout his speech and has continued to fallwith little bounce to 1.5530 so far in Asia.Looking ahead, Q4 GDP Germany forecast at -0.5% vs. 0.2%. EU GDP forecast at -0.4% vs.-0.1% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY rallied off the Y93 level but profit takerscapped at Y93.80 and we have seen the major and EUR/JPY fall back ahead of theBOJ today. Some expect the BOJ to pay lip service to global concerns about therecent Yen weakness ahead of the G20 meeting on Saturday. New FED Member Georgefrom the US spoke overnight was concerned about the size of the FED balancesheet and this helped 10yr US Bond Yields Rally and further support the USD/JPYthis time from the USD side. Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was strong making a run at large stopabove 1.0360 before finding the sellers camped just above the level and fallingback 1.0340 in Asian trade today. The AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD are the main crossesmoving daily with buyers on the AUD/JPY fighting the EUR/AUD uptrend sellers.Looking ahead, BOJ Rate Announcementforecast to hold at 0.1% but attention will be onthe statement and press conference with outgoing BOJ Governor Shirakawa. UPDATEQ4 Japanese GDP forecast at -0.1% vs. -0.9% GDP previously Q/Q.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold’s attempted rally was stopped twice at $1654before reversing to $1640. OIL/USD consolidated the recent gains testing and closing abovethe $97 support.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY – Will the BOJSlow or Encourage the USD/JPY rally?
AUD/USD – is the recentbounce over? Can we reclaim 1.0370-1.0600 range?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3364
1.3428
1.3450
1.3475
1.3501
USD/JPY
92.17
92.82
93.50
94.41
94.99
GBP/USD
1.5490
1.5506
1.5530
1.5630
1.5690
AUD/USD
1.0293
1.0315
1.0355
1.0362
1.0385
XAU/USD
1625
1639
1644
1655
1663
OIL/USD
95.00
97.00
97.20
98.00
100.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
Click here to visit Easy-Forex.com
Related Posts: