U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market volatility ratcheted up overnight withthe largest drop in stocks since November on Monday just providing betterlevels for buyers to enter. EUR/JPY and US Stocks rallied aggressively from theEuropean open buoyed by news that BOJ Governor Shirakawa will resign early and newsof a leveraged buyout of Dell computers the largest deal in 5 years a sign ofoptimism in the global economy. Looking ahead, Weekly Crude Oil Inventories forecast at 2.7m vs.5.9m previously. (Note this the is main weekly data for OIL/USD)
The Euro (EUR) was the driver of the market via the EUR/JPY crosswhich fell to Y124 at the start of Europe before running into what is beingcalled a ‘monster’ EUR/JPY buy order out of the Middle East. In one of thesharpest moves higher in recent memory we saw Sovereign names from the Middleeast appear aggressively on the buy side in what many analyst assume is aforeign reserve shift away from the Japanese Yen. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was whippy hitting 1.5800 after betterthan expected services PMI in January at 51.5 vs. 49.5 previously back intoexpansionary territory. Fresh selling emerged at the highs and acceleratedlower to fresh trend lows as EUR/GBP buying undermined the Pound once again.Looking ahead, January Halifax HPI forecast at -0.2% vs. 1.3% m/m. Also December German FactoryOrders at 0.8% vs. -1.8% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) one again those buying into the correction were paidoff handsomely last night with the BOJ Governor Shirakawa bringing forward hisresignation date to allow a more dovish central banker to be appointed. USD/JPY bounced from Y92 to Y93.60 by the end ofNew York and in sight of the major Y94 resistance and bull target. EUR/JPY waseven more volatile in a 340pip range as the sellers were overrun. Australian Dollar (AUD)the AUD/USD wasalmost in another world yesterday spending most of the day grinding lower tomajor range support at 1.0370. The catalyst was the RBA holding at 3.0% butstating that there was room for more rate cuts if needed because was well anchoredfor the foreseeable future. Also noted in the statement was a comment on thelooming end to the mining investment boom. Looking ahead, January Retail Salesforecast 0.3% vs. -0.1% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold rallied and tested stubborn resistance at $1685before reversing back to the lower $1670 region. The daily lows are gettinghigher but we have failed to break $1685 on three occasions now so the technicalare unclear. OIL/USD rallied to $97 before consolidating between the figure and $96.50.
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 6-FEB-2013
Middle Eastern Sovereigns ‘huge’ EUR/JPY buyers
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market volatility ratcheted up overnight withthe largest drop in stocks since November on Monday just providing betterlevels for buyers to enter. EUR/JPY and US Stocks rallied aggressively from theEuropean open buoyed by news that BOJ Governor Shirakawa will resign early and newsof a leveraged buyout of Dell computers the largest deal in 5 years a sign ofoptimism in the global economy. Looking ahead, Weekly Crude Oil Inventories forecast at 2.7m vs.5.9m previously. (Note this the is main weekly data for OIL/USD)
The Euro (EUR) was the driver of the market via the EUR/JPY crosswhich fell to Y124 at the start of Europe before running into what is beingcalled a ‘monster’ EUR/JPY buy order out of the Middle East. In one of thesharpest moves higher in recent memory we saw Sovereign names from the Middleeast appear aggressively on the buy side in what many analyst assume is aforeign reserve shift away from the Japanese Yen. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was whippy hitting 1.5800 after betterthan expected services PMI in January at 51.5 vs. 49.5 previously back intoexpansionary territory. Fresh selling emerged at the highs and acceleratedlower to fresh trend lows as EUR/GBP buying undermined the Pound once again.Looking ahead, January Halifax HPI forecast at -0.2% vs. 1.3% m/m. Also December German FactoryOrders at 0.8% vs. -1.8% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) one again those buying into the correction were paidoff handsomely last night with the BOJ Governor Shirakawa bringing forward hisresignation date to allow a more dovish central banker to be appointed. USD/JPY bounced from Y92 to Y93.60 by the end ofNew York and in sight of the major Y94 resistance and bull target. EUR/JPY waseven more volatile in a 340pip range as the sellers were overrun. Australian Dollar (AUD)the AUD/USD wasalmost in another world yesterday spending most of the day grinding lower tomajor range support at 1.0370. The catalyst was the RBA holding at 3.0% butstating that there was room for more rate cuts if needed because was well anchoredfor the foreseeable future. Also noted in the statement was a comment on thelooming end to the mining investment boom. Looking ahead, January Retail Salesforecast 0.3% vs. -0.1% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold rallied and tested stubborn resistance at $1685before reversing back to the lower $1670 region. The daily lows are gettinghigher but we have failed to break $1685 on three occasions now so the technicalare unclear. OIL/USD rallied to $97 before consolidating between the figure and $96.50.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY – Unstoppable rallyor dangerously overbought?
EUR/USD – Can France’sPresident Hollande slow the EUR/USD rally?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3377
1.3460
1.3575
1.3620
1.3660
USD/JPY
91.99
93.00
93.65
93.95
94.93
GBP/USD
1.5591
1.5628
1.5655
1.5674
1.5766
AUD/USD
1.0345
1.0361
1.0385
1.0411
1.0420
XAU/USD
1643.00
1662
1673
1682
1684
OIL/USD
94.80
95.00
96.65
97.00
98.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
Click here to visit Easy-Forex.com
Related Posts: