Dramatic Reversal as Spanish PM Corruption allegationsSweep Market
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a deadly combination of profit taking and freshpolitical risk out of Europe saw heavy selling in Global stocks and a rush tothe safe haven US Dollar. The main story sweeping the market was a Spanish corruptionscandal and record unemployment levels in the beleaguered EU country. AlsoItalian politics are entering the fray with upcoming general elections. Looking ahead, January ISM nonmanufacturing forecast at 55.2 vs.55.7 previously.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD took the brunt of the selling pressureovernight plummeting to 1.3500 support after the yields on Italian and SpanishDebt jumped sharply. The market had been buying Euro for some time so acorrection was due but the speed of the selling and the volume could promptfurther profit taking. The Euro was sold on all the crosses as well especiallyon the EUR/AUD which had been enjoying a strong uptrend. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD got support from the EUR/GBP liquidationfrom 0.8700 down to 0.8560 and helped cable lift from 1.5700 to 1.5750. The GBP/USDhas already been under pressure over the last few weeks so the market could notpush lower but further European stock market jitters could lead to more lossesahead of the BOE on Thursday.Looking ahead, January EU PMI services forecast at 48.3 vs. 48.3 previously. Also UK JanuaryPMI forecast at 49.5 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY hit fresh trend highs above Y93 but was soldaggressively from this point as profit takers took control and EUR/JPY fell fromY126.50 to Y124.80. The selling has continued in Asia but we haveconsolidated above Y124.50 going into Europe waiting fresh information on thepolitical scandals and watching the reaction of the EZ Debt Yields. Uptrends onthe Yen crosses are under threat across the board. Australian Dollar (AUD)the AUD has had aninteresting 23 hours trade able to defy the usual risk off selling flows asEUR/AUD liquidations help support but then pummeled in Asia after the RBA left thedoor open for further cuts in a surprising neutral statement after quite stronglocal economic data and strong performance of the local share market since theRBA last met.UPDATE Australian RBA hold rates at 3.0%.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was supported on the spike in sovereign risk outof the EU overnight, able to gain towards $1675oz against the USD but alsomaking heavy gains against the Euro. XAU/EUR received a lot of attentionovernight soaring $20oz as the sovereign risk emanated out of the Eurozoneitself. OIL/USD was sold with stocks from $97.50 to $96 with the chart now glaring a warningdouble top at $98 a barrel.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY – EUR/JPYCorrection to drag the major lower?
EUR/USD Can 1.3480 holdor does correction have further to run?
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 5-FEB-2013
Dramatic Reversal as Spanish PM Corruption allegationsSweep Market
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a deadly combination of profit taking and freshpolitical risk out of Europe saw heavy selling in Global stocks and a rush tothe safe haven US Dollar. The main story sweeping the market was a Spanish corruptionscandal and record unemployment levels in the beleaguered EU country. AlsoItalian politics are entering the fray with upcoming general elections. Looking ahead, January ISM nonmanufacturing forecast at 55.2 vs.55.7 previously.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD took the brunt of the selling pressureovernight plummeting to 1.3500 support after the yields on Italian and SpanishDebt jumped sharply. The market had been buying Euro for some time so acorrection was due but the speed of the selling and the volume could promptfurther profit taking. The Euro was sold on all the crosses as well especiallyon the EUR/AUD which had been enjoying a strong uptrend. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD got support from the EUR/GBP liquidationfrom 0.8700 down to 0.8560 and helped cable lift from 1.5700 to 1.5750. The GBP/USDhas already been under pressure over the last few weeks so the market could notpush lower but further European stock market jitters could lead to more lossesahead of the BOE on Thursday.Looking ahead, January EU PMI services forecast at 48.3 vs. 48.3 previously. Also UK JanuaryPMI forecast at 49.5 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY hit fresh trend highs above Y93 but was soldaggressively from this point as profit takers took control and EUR/JPY fell fromY126.50 to Y124.80. The selling has continued in Asia but we haveconsolidated above Y124.50 going into Europe waiting fresh information on thepolitical scandals and watching the reaction of the EZ Debt Yields. Uptrends onthe Yen crosses are under threat across the board. Australian Dollar (AUD)the AUD has had aninteresting 23 hours trade able to defy the usual risk off selling flows asEUR/AUD liquidations help support but then pummeled in Asia after the RBA left thedoor open for further cuts in a surprising neutral statement after quite stronglocal economic data and strong performance of the local share market since theRBA last met.UPDATE Australian RBA hold rates at 3.0%.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was supported on the spike in sovereign risk outof the EU overnight, able to gain towards $1675oz against the USD but alsomaking heavy gains against the Euro. XAU/EUR received a lot of attentionovernight soaring $20oz as the sovereign risk emanated out of the Eurozoneitself. OIL/USD was sold with stocks from $97.50 to $96 with the chart now glaring a warningdouble top at $98 a barrel.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY – EUR/JPYCorrection to drag the major lower?
EUR/USD Can 1.3480 holdor does correction have further to run?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3475
1.3480
1.3490
1.3580
1.3625
USD/JPY
90.85
91.85
92.35
92.95
94.00
GBP/USD
1.5635
1.5670
1.5755
1.5775
1.5800
AUD/USD
1.0375
1.0384
1.0410
1.0450
1.0505
XAU/USD
1643.00
1662
1677
1682
1684
OIL/USD
94.80
95.00
96.10
97.00
98.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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