U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a mixed NFP report saw 157k vs. 160k forecast jobscreated in January but the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 7.9% vs. 7.8%previously. The market bought into the small dip after the numbers were releasedafter traders looked at the major upward revisions of the previous 2 months ofover +130k jobs. US stocks continued to march higher with the widely watchedDow Jones Stock Index breaking above 14000 for the first time in 5 years. Looking ahead, December Factory Orders forecast at 2.3% vs. 0.0%previously.
The Euro (EUR) EUR/USD was able to take advantage of the ‘not tobad not too good’ jobs numbers which suggested the FED would not be movinganytime soon on stopping bond buying purchase. The EUR/USD hit 1.3700 brieflyat the height of the optimism but we have seen significant profit taking inAsia so far Monday back down to the lower 1.3600 region. EUR/JPY is the strongestpair in the market and proving considerable support. The Sterling (GBP) it was a tail of two cities on Friday with theGBP/USD clobbered unable to track stocks higher and instead falling on the backof weak economic data. January Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8 vs. 51.4previously. EUR/GBP buying was another source of GBP weakness with theimportant cross hitting 0.8700 on Friday.Looking ahead, UK January Construction PMI previously at 48.7. Also, December EU PPIforecast at 0.1% vs. -0.2% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) Yen selling was aggressive again on Friday with theincrease in US Unemployment Rate only providing only the smallest of pullbacksbefore the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY uptrends resumed. EUR/JPY hit fresh trend highsabove Y127 before easing with the major. USD/JPY grinded towards Y93 but has sofar failed to breach the round figure. Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated near 1.0400 on Friday unable to rallybut at least the selling has subsided for now. The RBA is ahead on Tuesday andthey are not expected to cut but traders will be watching the commentary closelyfor any hints about the next move or concern about the elevated AUD price. UPDATEAustralian Building Permits at -4.4% vs. 1.1% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold buyers were not afraid to react to the USDweakness post Jobs data on Friday but once again we have seen selling into therally which peaked at $1682. OIL/USD was range bound between $97 and $98 closing at$97.50.
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 4-FEB-2013
‘Risk On’ as Dow Jones breaks 14000
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a mixed NFP report saw 157k vs. 160k forecast jobscreated in January but the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 7.9% vs. 7.8%previously. The market bought into the small dip after the numbers were releasedafter traders looked at the major upward revisions of the previous 2 months ofover +130k jobs. US stocks continued to march higher with the widely watchedDow Jones Stock Index breaking above 14000 for the first time in 5 years. Looking ahead, December Factory Orders forecast at 2.3% vs. 0.0%previously.
The Euro (EUR) EUR/USD was able to take advantage of the ‘not tobad not too good’ jobs numbers which suggested the FED would not be movinganytime soon on stopping bond buying purchase. The EUR/USD hit 1.3700 brieflyat the height of the optimism but we have seen significant profit taking inAsia so far Monday back down to the lower 1.3600 region. EUR/JPY is the strongestpair in the market and proving considerable support. The Sterling (GBP) it was a tail of two cities on Friday with theGBP/USD clobbered unable to track stocks higher and instead falling on the backof weak economic data. January Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8 vs. 51.4previously. EUR/GBP buying was another source of GBP weakness with theimportant cross hitting 0.8700 on Friday.Looking ahead, UK January Construction PMI previously at 48.7. Also, December EU PPIforecast at 0.1% vs. -0.2% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) Yen selling was aggressive again on Friday with theincrease in US Unemployment Rate only providing only the smallest of pullbacksbefore the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY uptrends resumed. EUR/JPY hit fresh trend highsabove Y127 before easing with the major. USD/JPY grinded towards Y93 but has sofar failed to breach the round figure. Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated near 1.0400 on Friday unable to rallybut at least the selling has subsided for now. The RBA is ahead on Tuesday andthey are not expected to cut but traders will be watching the commentary closelyfor any hints about the next move or concern about the elevated AUD price. UPDATEAustralian Building Permits at -4.4% vs. 1.1% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold buyers were not afraid to react to the USDweakness post Jobs data on Friday but once again we have seen selling into therally which peaked at $1682. OIL/USD was range bound between $97 and $98 closing at$97.50.
Pairs to watch
USD/JPY Strong Uptrend ToContinue? Y95 Target?
EUR/USD Will the ECBTalk about Euro Strength?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3475
1.3565
1.3625
1.3635
1.3700
USD/JPY
91.80
92.50
92.60
92.95
94.00
GBP/USD
1.5635
1.5670
1.5700
1.5775
1.5800
AUD/USD
1.0375
1.0384
1.0425
1.0450
1.0505
XAU/USD
1643.00
1652
1668
1682
1684
OIL/USD
95.40
96.80
97.60
98.20
99.60
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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