U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Dollar strength from last week’s FOMC minutes surprise faded overnight and we saw EUR/USD bounce off 1.3000 and USD/JPY fall back from the Y88 handle. Attention is turning to the ECB later this week and their outlook for Eurozone in 2013. Looking ahead, January IBD Economic Optimism previously at 45.1 previously.
The Euro (EUR) Euro bears were caught short yesterday with the 1.3000 level holding two attempts and putting a short term base in overnight. Shorts were squeezed back above 1.3120 and could head towards 1.3300 the top of the recent trading range. EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY both supported with strong moves in New York. Some speculation about the ECB meeting on Thursday with a think tank report overnight suggesting the ECB will not cut rates. The Sterling (GBP) GBP/USD took advantage of the Dollar weakness grinding back above 1.6100 and is well positioned to test higher now the market has stabilized. December Halifax gained 1.3% vs. 0% forecast m/m. Looking ahead, German November Trade Balance forecast at 15 vs. 15.2bn previously.November Industrial Orders forecast at -1.4% vs. 3.9% previously
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY fell back from the Y88 level with profit taking adding to Dollar weakness later in the day. EUR/JPY helped support in the US session rising from Y114.10 to Y115.10. Jawboning from Japanese officials remains supportive but something of more substance will be needed for a test of the ley Y90 level. Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD did well in the commodity rally overnight with Oil pushing higher and Iron ore remaining at 2011 levels. AUD/JPY is getting support on dips and remains elevated near the Y92 level. AUD/USD is finding tough resistance above 1.0500. Looking ahead, November Trade Balance forecast at -2300mn vs. -2088mn previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold started the day strong breaking above $1660 before once again faltering and we have ended mixed at $1645. Oil was quiet but remained above $93 consolidating recent gains.
Dollar Rally Falters
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Dollar strength from last week’s FOMC minutes surprise
faded overnight and we saw EUR/USD bounce off 1.3000 and USD/JPY fall back from
the Y88 handle. Attention is turning to the ECB later this week and their
outlook for Eurozone in 2013. Looking ahead, January IBD Economic Optimism previously at 45.1
previously.
The Euro (EUR) Euro bears were caught short yesterday with the
1.3000 level holding two attempts and putting a short term base in overnight.
Shorts were squeezed back above 1.3120 and could head towards 1.3300 the top of
the recent trading range. EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY both supported with strong moves in
New York. Some speculation about the ECB meeting on Thursday with a think tank report
overnight suggesting the ECB will not cut rates. The Sterling (GBP) GBP/USD took advantage of the Dollar weakness
grinding back above 1.6100 and is well positioned to test higher now the market
has stabilized. December Halifax gained 1.3% vs. 0% forecast m/m. Looking ahead, German November Trade Balance forecast at 15 vs.
15.2bn previously. November Industrial Orders forecast at -1.4% vs.
3.9% previously
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY fell back from the Y88 level with profit taking
adding to Dollar weakness later in the day. EUR/JPY helped support in the US session
rising from Y114.10 to Y115.10. Jawboning from Japanese officials remains supportive
but something of more substance will be needed for a test of the ley Y90 level.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD did well in the commodity rally
overnight with Oil pushing higher and Iron ore remaining at 2011 levels.
AUD/JPY is getting support on dips and remains elevated near the Y92 level.
AUD/USD is finding tough resistance above 1.0500. Looking ahead, November Trade
Balance forecast at -2300mn vs. -2088mn previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold started the day strong breaking above $1660
before once again faltering and we have ended mixed at $1645. Oil was quiet but remained above $93 consolidating
recent gains.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD Topside now in
view 1.3300?
USD/JPY Downside Support
at Y87.35?
TECHNICAL
COMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.2929
1.2998
1.3125
1.3190
1.3300
USD/JPY
87.00
87.26
87.50
88.38
89.00
GBP/USD
1.5962
1.6022
1.6125
1.6159
1.6255
AUD/USD
1.0294
1.0412
1.0505
1.0524
1.0558
XAU/USD
1600.00
1626
1645
1660
1700
OIL/USD
90.00
91.50
93.25
93.80
95.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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