U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a weak equity close was seen on Friday after US Fiscal Cliff negotiations showed signs of stalemate. A big week of economic data ahead will be critical for sustaining the recent gains and we expect a lot of volatility. Friday’s NonFarm Payrolls will be the highlight and could be negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy last month. Looking ahead, November ISM Manufacturing forecast 51.2 vs. 51.7 previously.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD hugged the 1.3000 on Friday with little incentive to push higher given profit taking on stocks. Germany approved bailout money for Greece but October EU Unemployment hit 11.7% vs. 11.6% previously for a fresh all-time Euro era high. The Sterling (GBP) reversed from 1.6060 to tested 1.6000 during the US session on Friday with weak Canadian GDP and US income figures putting a dampener on the final session. Over the weekend we saw good Chinese data but US politicians seem no closer to a fiscal cliff compromise. Looking ahead, November EU PMI Manufacturing forecast at 46.2 vs. 46.2 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY pressed higher in Asian on Friday but we stalled across the whole Yen complex in the US session and pulled back to Y82.40 support. The uptrend is in play and longs are targeting the Y83 resistance. Talk in the market that Japan will embark on aggressive monetary easing to stimulate the economy has been the main cause of Yen weakness of late. Australian Dollar (AUD) remained supported on dips so far with AUD/USD falling from 1.0480 to 1.0410 Friday as Gold fell sharply and long traders took profit ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting which is now pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut. Looking ahead, October Retail Sales forecast 0.4% vs. 0.5%
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold tapped out at key resistance near $1730 on Friday before pulling back to $1710. OIL/USD is well supported on dips targeting $90 a barrel which is a key topside resistance in the past month.
Chinese Manufacturing Bounces Back
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a weak equity close was seen on Friday after US
Fiscal Cliff negotiations showed signs of stalemate. A big week of economic data
ahead will be critical for sustaining the recent gains and we expect a lot of
volatility. Friday’s NonFarm Payrolls will be the highlight and could be negatively
affected by Hurricane Sandy last month. Looking ahead, November ISM Manufacturing forecast 51.2 vs. 51.7
previously.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD hugged the 1.3000 on Friday with little
incentive to push higher given profit taking on stocks. Germany approved
bailout money for Greece but October EU Unemployment hit 11.7% vs. 11.6%
previously for a fresh all-time Euro era high. The Sterling (GBP) reversed from 1.6060 to tested 1.6000 during the US
session on Friday with weak Canadian GDP and US income figures putting a dampener
on the final session. Over the weekend we saw good Chinese data but US
politicians seem no closer to a fiscal cliff compromise. Looking ahead, November EU PMI Manufacturing forecast at 46.2 vs.
46.2 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY pressed higher in Asian on Friday but we stalled
across the whole Yen complex in the US session and pulled back to Y82.40
support. The uptrend is in play and longs are targeting the Y83 resistance.
Talk in the market that Japan will embark on aggressive monetary easing to
stimulate the economy has been the main cause of Yen weakness of late. Australian Dollar (AUD)
remained supported
on dips so far with AUD/USD falling from 1.0480 to 1.0410 Friday as Gold fell
sharply and long traders took profit ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting which is
now pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut. Looking ahead, October Retail Sales forecast 0.4%
vs. 0.5%
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold tapped out at key resistance near $1730 on
Friday before pulling back to $1710. OIL/USD is well supported on dips targeting $90 a
barrel which is a key topside resistance in the past month.
Pairs to watch
OIL/USD $90 Key Level upside
test ahead?
USD/JPY Uptrend while
Y81.70 holds
TECHNICAL
COMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.2939
1.2968
1.2995
1.3029
1.3075
USD/JPY
81.68
81.98
82.45
82.84
83.00
GBP/USD
1.5828
1.5962
1.6025
1.6062
1.6100
AUD/USD
1.0352
1.0402
1.0425
1.0482
1.0500
XAU/USD
1701.00
1711
1717
1733
1752
OIL/USD
87.10
88.00
89.00
89.50
90.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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