U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) markets have turned negative in recent sessions with risk off trading on Friday spilling over into Monday’s trade. Spain was once again the center of attention with concerns that the ESM would not have enough money and then later that Spain will not request aid until November.Fresh EUR/USD selling is keeping the single currency under 1.3000 and helping the Dollar remain strong. Looking ahead, September Retail Sales forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.9% previously.
The Euro (EUR) Stalling by Spain on requesting bailout money is leaving the market unsure about the next direction for the EUR/USD. Falling Yields on Spanish and Italian debt could easily have inspired a much larger rally in the EUR/USD if Spain had requested help. So far in Asia we have fallen to 1.2900 support. The Sterling (GBP) found buyers under 1.6000 on Thursday and we closed with a small bounce towards 1.6050. Growing calls for further monetary stimulus (QE) from the BOE are undermining the outlook. Looking ahead, no economic data today.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was quiet on Friday with USD strength keeping the USD/JPY close to Y78.50 resistance for most of the day. The Yen crosses are in play with EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY both nearing critical levels of Y100 and Y80 respectively. Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD tried to break 1.0300 at the same time as EUR/USD attempted to break 1.3000 on Friday during the European session. Both pairs failed and we have fallen back on Friday night and Monday morning to 1.0200 on the Aussie and looking to test with multimonth lows at 1.0150. Bonds are pricing in a 80% chance of a rate cut in November after the Reserve Bank Governor noted there was plenty of scope to mitigate a slowdown in growth.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold has been collapsing in the last two sessions falling to $1755 on Friday and then $1740 so far in Asia today. Longer term Bulls are getting worried about the ability for buyers to absorb this amount of selling.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD Markets to Pressure Spain to take Bailout?
Spain Bailout Delay?
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) markets
have turned negative in recent sessions with risk off trading on Friday
spilling over into Monday’s trade. Spain was once again the center of attention
with concerns that the ESM would not have enough money and then later that
Spain will not request aid until November. Fresh EUR/USD selling
is keeping the single currency under 1.3000 and helping the Dollar remain
strong. Looking ahead, September Retail Sales forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.9%
previously.
The Euro (EUR) Stalling by Spain
on requesting bailout money is leaving the market unsure about the next
direction for the EUR/USD. Falling Yields on Spanish and Italian debt could
easily have inspired a much larger rally in the EUR/USD if Spain had requested
help. So far in Asia we have fallen to 1.2900 support. The Sterling (GBP) found
buyers under 1.6000 on Thursday and we closed with a small bounce towards
1.6050. Growing calls for further monetary stimulus (QE) from the BOE are undermining
the outlook. Looking ahead, no economic data today.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was quiet on Friday
with USD strength keeping the USD/JPY close to Y78.50 resistance for most of
the day. The Yen crosses are in play with EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY both nearing critical
levels of Y100 and Y80 respectively. Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD tried
to break 1.0300 at the same time as EUR/USD attempted to break 1.3000 on Friday
during the European session. Both pairs failed and we have fallen back on
Friday night and Monday morning to 1.0200 on the Aussie and looking to test
with multimonth lows at 1.0150. Bonds are pricing in a 80% chance of a rate cut
in November after the Reserve Bank Governor noted there was plenty of scope to
mitigate a slowdown in growth.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold has
been collapsing in the last two sessions falling to $1755 on Friday and then
$1740 so far in Asia today. Longer term Bulls are getting worried about the
ability for buyers to absorb this amount of selling.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD Markets to Pressure Spain to take Bailout?
XAU/USD $1796 the 2012 high in place?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.2827
1.2880
1.2910
1.2991
1.3035
USD/JPY
77.79
77.95
78.40
78.72
78.88
GBP/USD
1.5960
1.5975
1.6040
1.6086
1.6142
AUD/USD
1.0150
1.0175
1.0220
1.0295
1.0345
XAU/USD
1711.00
1733
1745
1755
1796
OIL/USD
90.00
91.00
91.15
92.50
94.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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