U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the markets had a quiet day on Monday with UK away on Bank holiday and a small rally in Europe reversed later in the US session. Some positivity is coming through on the Greece front with hopes of some flexibility towards the struggling EZ country helping the EUR/USD remain strong. The USD risk event of the week is the Jackson Hole Speech on Friday by Bernanke so aggressive trading is unlikely until then. Looking ahead, June Case Shiller House Prices forecast at 1.6% vs. 2.2% previously m/m. Also August Consumer Confidence forecast at 66 vs. 65.9 previously.
The Euro (EUR) some comments from ECB member Asmussen hurt the EUR/USD in late US trade with comments that the ECB will only buy bonds after the ESM and even this was conditional. The remarks were taken as downplaying the chance of the ECB intervening in the bond markets in a aggressive fashion. Support at 1.2500 has been broken in Asian trade but we have only fallen to 1.2465 so far. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD eased for a third day back under 1.5800 and the uptrend in under threat if 1.5750 breaks today. The general outlook is linked with the Euro and Friday’s USD event will also be a big mover for the Pound. Looking ahead, German GFK Consumer Sentiment is forecast at 5.9% vs. 5.9% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY reversed from Y78.80 to Y78.50 in Asia Tuesday after the Japanese Government downgraded its economic outlook with the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY also falling sharply. Strong support is seen between Y78.50-78.00 and we should break below before Friday. Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD continued to struggle all day with the China slowdown story and some local mining slowdown news creating an air of uncertainty. Gold and Oil fell sharply overnight and the AUD/USD fell to 1.0350 support. The downside is significant if the trend changes we could see sub 1.000 levels.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold topped out and reversed under heavy selling pressure with longs booking profit from the recent sharp rally higher. OIL/USD was aggressive on the downside with the market free falling from $97 to $95 in one hour during the US open.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD to fall ahead of Jackson hole as uncertainty prompts caution?
XAU/USD $20 correction enough to tempt buyers back into the market?
Markets Stable as Profit Taking Caps Rally
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the
markets had a quiet day on Monday with UK away on Bank holiday and a small rally
in Europe reversed later in the US session. Some positivity is coming through
on the Greece front with hopes of some flexibility towards the struggling EZ
country helping the EUR/USD remain strong. The USD risk event of the week is
the Jackson Hole Speech on Friday by Bernanke so aggressive trading is unlikely
until then. Looking ahead, June
Case Shiller House Prices forecast at 1.6% vs. 2.2% previously m/m. Also August
Consumer Confidence forecast at 66 vs. 65.9 previously.
The Euro (EUR) some comments from
ECB member Asmussen hurt the EUR/USD in late US trade with comments that the
ECB will only buy bonds after the ESM and even this was conditional. The
remarks were taken as downplaying the chance of the ECB intervening in the bond
markets in a aggressive fashion. Support at 1.2500 has been broken in Asian
trade but we have only fallen to 1.2465 so far. The Sterling (GBP) the
GBP/USD eased for a third day back under 1.5800 and the uptrend in under threat
if 1.5750 breaks today. The general outlook is linked with the Euro and Friday’s
USD event will also be a big mover for the Pound. Looking ahead, German
GFK Consumer Sentiment is forecast at 5.9% vs. 5.9% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY reversed
from Y78.80 to Y78.50 in Asia Tuesday after the Japanese Government downgraded
its economic outlook with the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY also falling sharply. Strong
support is seen between Y78.50-78.00 and we should break below before Friday. Australian Dollar (AUD) the
AUD/USD continued to struggle all day with the China slowdown story and some
local mining slowdown news creating an air of uncertainty. Gold and Oil fell sharply
overnight and the AUD/USD fell to 1.0350 support. The downside is significant
if the trend changes we could see sub 1.000 levels.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold topped out and
reversed under heavy selling pressure with longs booking profit from the recent
sharp rally higher. OIL/USD was aggressive on the downside with the market free
falling from $97 to $95 in one hour during the US open.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD to fall ahead of Jackson hole as uncertainty
prompts caution?
XAU/USD $20 correction enough to tempt buyers back
into the market?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.2400
1.2431
1.2475
1.2581
1.2608
USD/JPY
77.90
78.27
78.50
79.14
79.38
GBP/USD
1.5678
1.5718
1.5770
1.5869
1.5912
AUD/USD
1.0300
1.0337
1.0350
1.0400
1.0443
XAU/USD
1633.00
1645
1660
1679
1700
OIL/USD
92.50
95.00
95.30
96.50
98.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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