Currencies: review and outlook for October 23, 2013
October 23, 2013 10:30 am
After weak data on US Nonfarm Payrolls in September the euro and the pound moved counterintuitively, the euro rose 100 points and the pound added 90 points. After fluctuations the yen closed the day at the opening level. The biggest banks Goldman Sachs and Barclays said that now QE3 could be expected only in March. Meanwhile data on US Nonfarm Payrolls in August was revised upwardly from 169K to 193K and Unemployment rate dropped 0.1%, to 7.2%. The Unemployment rate taking into account the number of citizens not looking for a job fell 0.1% as well, from 13.7% to 13.6%. The investors do not want to regard this situation positive, however there is nothing negative in it.
Risk appetite demonstrated by the euro and the pound (partially by the Australian dollar) is not shown by the other currencies. We consider that the only explanation for it is speculative purchases, which started from the second half of September, continue.
The ECB policymakers have repeatedly announced that Europe did not favour the high rate of the euro. Neither the US needs it as the country places considerable volumes of national borrowings. Probably there are more profound reasons underlying it. One of them is loan made from state pension funds equaling $330 billion after decision on the US budget. Taking into account attracted $65 billion during an auction on Monday, the US Treasury now has $395 billion. It is enough to finance budget for seven months; however if we take into account that the considerable amount of that sum is transferred to cover an old debt, then less). Thus, the US Treasury may now not hurry to attract the external debt and the demand on the US dollars will not be considerable. That is why, the Fed and major bank do not restrain the speculation.
On Thursday data on US New Home Sales in September is issued; forecast 427K vs. 421K in August. On Friday data on US durable goods in September is expected to be strong, 1.7% vs. 0.1%; core index is supposed to be 0.6% vs. -0.1%. These days we expect consolidation of the profit and the decline of the euro and pound sterling.
Today the euro may rise to the range 1.3800/10 and the pound may increase to the high of October 1, 1.6262.
At 12:30 UTC+4 Bank of England Meeting minutes are to be published.
USD/JPY.
Yesterday the investors trading the yen were confused. On the one hand, policymakers have announced that the emission of national bonds will continue; on the other hand, their wish to buy the dollar against the yen was suppressed by massive dollar sells against the euro and the pound. Meanwhile, the growth of the Japanese economy in August-October moved to the domestic consumption (deficit of trade balance in September was 1.09 trillion yen against -0.82 trillion in August and manufacturing orders rose from 0.0% up to 5.4%), which is of concern for the government. The yen has been trading in sideways channel for two weeks, which can be regarded as waiting for the end of a rush on the European speculations. When the situation speeds up, the yen continues growth, leaving the triangle on the daily chart.
Targets for growth: 99.95, the highs of April 11 and 22 and August 2; 100.60, the high of September 11, and 101.52, the high of July 8.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
After weak data on US Nonfarm Payrolls in September the euro and the pound moved counterintuitively, the euro rose 100 points and the pound added 90 points. After fluctuations the yen closed the day at the opening level. The biggest banks Goldman Sachs and Barclays said that now QE3 could be expected only in March. Meanwhile data on US Nonfarm Payrolls in August was revised upwardly from 169K to 193K and Unemployment rate dropped 0.1%, to 7.2%. The Unemployment rate taking into account the number of citizens not looking for a job fell 0.1% as well, from 13.7% to 13.6%. The investors do not want to regard this situation positive, however there is nothing negative in it.
Risk appetite demonstrated by the euro and the pound (partially by the Australian dollar) is not shown by the other currencies. We consider that the only explanation for it is speculative purchases, which started from the second half of September, continue.
The ECB policymakers have repeatedly announced that Europe did not favour the high rate of the euro. Neither the US needs it as the country places considerable volumes of national borrowings. Probably there are more profound reasons underlying it. One of them is loan made from state pension funds equaling $330 billion after decision on the US budget. Taking into account attracted $65 billion during an auction on Monday, the US Treasury now has $395 billion. It is enough to finance budget for seven months; however if we take into account that the considerable amount of that sum is transferred to cover an old debt, then less). Thus, the US Treasury may now not hurry to attract the external debt and the demand on the US dollars will not be considerable. That is why, the Fed and major bank do not restrain the speculation.
On Thursday data on US New Home Sales in September is issued; forecast 427K vs. 421K in August. On Friday data on US durable goods in September is expected to be strong, 1.7% vs. 0.1%; core index is supposed to be 0.6% vs. -0.1%. These days we expect consolidation of the profit and the decline of the euro and pound sterling.
Today the euro may rise to the range 1.3800/10 and the pound may increase to the high of October 1, 1.6262.
At 12:30 UTC+4 Bank of England Meeting minutes are to be published.
USD/JPY.
Yesterday the investors trading the yen were confused. On the one hand, policymakers have announced that the emission of national bonds will continue; on the other hand, their wish to buy the dollar against the yen was suppressed by massive dollar sells against the euro and the pound. Meanwhile, the growth of the Japanese economy in August-October moved to the domestic consumption (deficit of trade balance in September was 1.09 trillion yen against -0.82 trillion in August and manufacturing orders rose from 0.0% up to 5.4%), which is of concern for the government. The yen has been trading in sideways channel for two weeks, which can be regarded as waiting for the end of a rush on the European speculations. When the situation speeds up, the yen continues growth, leaving the triangle on the daily chart.
Targets for growth: 99.95, the highs of April 11 and 22 and August 2; 100.60, the high of September 11, and 101.52, the high of July 8.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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