Overview of macroeconomic reports

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A few economic events are scheduled for Wednesday. The main item on today’s agenda is the US inflation report, which is highly important for the market and the outlook for the dollar. Considering that the dollar has been falling at the beginning of this week, there is every reason to believe that the market has started to anticipate the future inflation report. The fact is that its value is almost certainly going to show a serious slowdown, which is negative for the dollar, as the Federal Reserve may decide to abandon one of the two additional key rate hikes based on it.

However, at the same time, core inflation will remain much higher than the target level, so the market may now be making a mistake by selling off the dollar. There could be a reversal on Wednesday, illogical market reaction to a drop in inflation to 3.1% (if the forecast is justified). The dollar may rise, but we need to be prepared for any outcome, as the above is merely a hypothesis.

Overview of fundamental events

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The main item on today’s agenda is the US inflation report. That’s what beginners should focus on, all other events are secondary. There is every reason to expect that the dollar will rise, but we can’t be 100% sure of this, considering the overall trend of its fall. The market might just use another reason to sell off the dollar.

Main rules of the trading system:
  • The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce/drop or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
  • If two or more trades were opened near a certain level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
  • In a flat market, any currency pair can generate a lot of false signals or not generate them at all. But in any case, as soon as the first signs of a flat market are detected, it is better to stop trading.
  • Trades are opened in the time interval between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American one when all trades must be closed manually.
  • On the 30-minute timeframe, you can trade based on MACD signals only on the condition of good volatility and provided that a trend is confirmed by the trend line or a trend channel.
  • If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
Comments on charts

Support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening long or short positions. Take Profit orders can be placed around them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading now.

The MACD (14,22,3) indicator, both histogram and signal line, is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with utmost caution or to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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