Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GBPUSD, Oil
October 9, 2023 1:25 pmVideo
Latest News
- What’s next for markets amid Israel-Iran tensions? – Special Report April 16, 2024
- Technical Analysis – GBPUSD pulls back into the negative zone April 16, 2024
- Geopolitical developments and stronger US data push volatility to new highs across the board – Volatility Watch April 16, 2024
- Technical Analysis – AUDUSD breaks the lower bound of a sideways range April 16, 2024
- Video market update for April 16, 2024 April 16, 2024
- Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 16, 2024 April 16, 2024
- Technical Analysis – EURUSD dives further near 1.0600 April 16, 2024
- XM 2024 Ramadan Promotion Winners April 16, 2024
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 16 April 16, 2024
- Key events on April 16: fundamental analysis for beginners April 16, 2024
- Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 16th. The pound may rebound, but the flat is over, and there are no reasons for growth April 16, 2024
- Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 16. Simple tips for beginners April 16, 2024
- Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 16. Simple tips for beginners April 16, 2024
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 16th. In plain text: The ECB will cut rates in June April 16, 2024
- Forecast for EUR/USD on April 16, 2024 April 16, 2024
- Forecast for GBP/USD on April 16, 2024 April 16, 2024
- Forecast for AUD/USD on April 16, 2024 April 16, 2024
- Outlook for GBP/USD on April 16. Pound awaits inflation data April 16, 2024
- Outlook for EUR/USD on April 16. Another boring Monday April 16, 2024
- The euro hardly has a chance to rise April 16, 2024
USD/JPY resilient above key support as US CPI awaited
UK GDP to rise, but will GBP/USD extend rebound?
Tensions in Middle East boost oil, but key resistance overhead
US CPI –> USD/JPY
Friday’s US jobs data backed the “higher for longer” era in the monetary world, with the focus turning now to the next CPI inflation report due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The data are expected to indicate softer price pressures after two months of gradual rises, with the headline CPI likely to ease marginally to 3.6% y/y from 3.7% previously. The core measure is forecast to pull lower, from 4.3% y/y to 4.1% y/y, while the monthly reading might attract special attention too given August’s rebound as investors wonder whether the recent spike in oil prices and a resilient labor market could heat up inflation and therefore rate expectations.
Minutes from the Fed’s September policy meeting might be insightful on Wednesday.
In charts, USD/JPY is facing discouraging technical signals, but the latest bounce on the 20-day simple moving average is still looking promising. The bulls will have to rally above the 151.35-151.35 area to preserve buying confidence.
UK GDP –> GBP/USD
Turning to Europe, the UK’s monthly GDP data will feature on the calendar on Thursday at 06:00 GMT along with industrial production and trade figures. A big upward revision in the national Q2 GDP growth readings put the UK at the forefront compared to Germany and France last week, but the British pound could barely reap any benefits.
Hence, although the August GDP release is expected to show a slightly higher three-month average of 0.3% y/y from 0.2% previously and a monthly bounce of 0.5% compared to 0.0% in August 2022, traders might not provide a helping hand to the British pound.
The latest GBP/USD rebound may continue based on technical analysis, but there could be challenges ahead. Resistance is anticipated at 1.2235 and 1.2340, while a decisive bounce above the 1.2430-1.2500 could be a bigger achievement. Perhaps a resumption of the hawkish rhetoric within the BoE board could trigger the desired rally in the market, but for that to happen, traders would like to see a meaningful improvement in economic data.
Tensions in Middle East –> Oil
The unexpected deadly conflict between Israel and Hamas will keep energy markets under the spotlight during the week, especially if there is possible involvement of Iran. Concerns of tighter supply lifted WTI crude oil as high as $87.23 today, but the rise is still in an early stage and is looking fragile from a technical perspective.
China’s CPI inflation and trade statistics could have an impact on energy prices during Friday’s Asian session. Should the figures suggest the recent stimulus practises are working, oil prices could recoup some lost ground. A close above 89.00 and the 20-day SMA could see an extension higher.
Related Posts: