Week Ahead. What to Expect from the First Week of the Quarter
October 2, 2018 7:41 am
Last week, the market was dominated by the US political news, the Federal Reserve, and the United Nations General Assembly meeting. This week will be dominated by the following.
US Politics
US politics will continue to dominate the market. This is mostly because the voters will go to the voting booth within a month’s time. Last week, the democrats succeeded in delaying the vote of the supreme court justice, Brett Kavenough. The allegations brought forward are now being investigated by the FBI with a report expected on Friday. Traders will without a doubt pay close attention to this. This is because a loss by republicans will mean trouble for them when voters go to vote in the coming election. Their loss will lead to more trouble to the embattled Trump administration.
US Jobs Numbers
On Wednesday, ADP will release the employment numbers for the month of September. This will be a closely watched data by traders. Traders expect the ADP numbers to show that the economy added more than 185K jobs in September. The number will be released a day before the labour department releases the official numbers. Traders expect the official data to show that the numbers increased by 185K. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 3.8% while the closely-watched U6 number to show the unemployment rate at 7.4%. Traders will also focus on the average wage growth and the average work hours.
Manufacturing PMIs
Every first week of the month, traders usually focus on the manufacturing numbers. On Sunday, Chinese PMI numbers rose by a slower margin than had been expected. The Caixin manufacturing PMI rose by 50, which was lower than the expected 50.5 while the Markit number rose to 50.8 which was lower than the expected 51.2.
Today, traders will receive the Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing numbers from Japan. They will also receive manufacturing numbers from Germany, France, and Italy. Other PMIs that will be released this week will be from Spain, Switzerland, South Africa, United States, UK and Russia among others.
UK Conservatives Meeting
This week, the conservatives conference will take place in the United Kingdom. This will be a major meeting for the ruling party. Theresa May expects to have a tough week as she will be confronted by her party on the future of Brexit. Already, a team of representatives has announced that it will oppose her proposals. They have also announced their plans to replace her as the party leader. Therefore, the pound will be a major currency to watch this week. It is also likely that the embattled prime minister will emerge victorious from the conference.
RBA
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be the only major central bank to announce its interest rate decision. Traders expect the bank to follow the lead of other central banks and leave the rates unchanged. Traders will however pay a close attention to the statement that will come from the bank. This statement will show whether the bank will maintain status quo of low interest rates or whether it will shift its language to a hawkish one.
Last week, the market was dominated by the US political news, the Federal Reserve, and the United Nations General Assembly meeting. This week will be dominated by the following.
US Politics
US politics will continue to dominate the market. This is mostly because the voters will go to the voting booth within a month’s time. Last week, the democrats succeeded in delaying the vote of the supreme court justice, Brett Kavenough. The allegations brought forward are now being investigated by the FBI with a report expected on Friday. Traders will without a doubt pay close attention to this. This is because a loss by republicans will mean trouble for them when voters go to vote in the coming election. Their loss will lead to more trouble to the embattled Trump administration.
US Jobs Numbers
On Wednesday, ADP will release the employment numbers for the month of September. This will be a closely watched data by traders. Traders expect the ADP numbers to show that the economy added more than 185K jobs in September. The number will be released a day before the labour department releases the official numbers. Traders expect the official data to show that the numbers increased by 185K. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 3.8% while the closely-watched U6 number to show the unemployment rate at 7.4%. Traders will also focus on the average wage growth and the average work hours.
Manufacturing PMIs
Every first week of the month, traders usually focus on the manufacturing numbers. On Sunday, Chinese PMI numbers rose by a slower margin than had been expected. The Caixin manufacturing PMI rose by 50, which was lower than the expected 50.5 while the Markit number rose to 50.8 which was lower than the expected 51.2.
Today, traders will receive the Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing numbers from Japan. They will also receive manufacturing numbers from Germany, France, and Italy. Other PMIs that will be released this week will be from Spain, Switzerland, South Africa, United States, UK and Russia among others.
UK Conservatives Meeting
This week, the conservatives conference will take place in the United Kingdom. This will be a major meeting for the ruling party. Theresa May expects to have a tough week as she will be confronted by her party on the future of Brexit. Already, a team of representatives has announced that it will oppose her proposals. They have also announced their plans to replace her as the party leader. Therefore, the pound will be a major currency to watch this week. It is also likely that the embattled prime minister will emerge victorious from the conference.
RBA
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be the only major central bank to announce its interest rate decision. Traders expect the bank to follow the lead of other central banks and leave the rates unchanged. Traders will however pay a close attention to the statement that will come from the bank. This statement will show whether the bank will maintain status quo of low interest rates or whether it will shift its language to a hawkish one.
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