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US Open Preview – Pound finds support as UK unemployment rate declines; Australian wage growth in focus
August 14, 2018 12:26 pmVideo
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Here are the latest developments in global markets:
Day ahead: US-Turkish relations to remain in focus; Australian wage growth and Westpac economic sentiment eyed
Although the risk-off sentiment linked with the Turkish story seemed to soften a bit on Tuesday, investors will continue to monitor developments around the US-Turkish standoff as a top national security aide to the US President said on Monday that negotiations will not take place between the countries until Turkey frees the detained American pastor. On Tuesday, the Turkish President, Tayyip Erdoğan, threatened to ban electronic products from the US to punish Washington for the lira’s meltdown. This is a signal that the dispute could hold for longer and therefore the euro could find it hard to recover in the following days amid worries that the lira’s meltdown could have negative implications for the European banking sector.
Turning to the economic calendar, US import and export prices will provide a piece of evidence on inflationary pressures later in the day at 1230 GMT, with analysts projecting the former to rebound by 0.1% in July on a monthly basis after posting a decline of 0.4% in June, while the latter is expected to slow down from 0.3% m/m to 0.2%.
Following the above US data, the focus will turn to Australia early on Wednesday, where the Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to publish wage growth figures for the second quarter at 0130 GMT, a key factor behind the RBA’s accommodative monetary policy. While the central bank is eagerly awaiting for subdued wage growth to pick up steam before it decides to remove some stimulus, the data are expected to show that earnings have expanded at 2.1% y/y, the same as in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, though, the measure is forecast to rise slightly faster than in the March quarter, posting a growth of 0.6% compared to 0.5% seen previously. Should the numbers beat expectations, turning RBA policymakers more confident on the economy’s outlook, the aussie could recover losses made in the past few days and vice versa. Additionally, Westpac’s consumer sentiment index for the month of August delivered prior the wage numbers at 0030 GMT could also move the aussie.
Meanwhile in oil markets, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly report on US crude oil inventories at 2030 GMT, with scope to add some volatility to crude prices.
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