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US Open Preview – Euro eyes Italian budget meeting; German CPI & central bank speeches awaited
September 27, 2018 12:26 pmVideo
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Here are the latest developments in global markets:
Day Ahead: US durable goods & Q2 GDP final figures awaited; German CPI & Japan unemployment rate pending
Looking ahead to the rest of the day, the US, Germany and Japan are scheduled to report economic figures, while there are plenty of public appearances for traders to have in mind.
German preliminary inflation figures for the month of September will be available for review at 1200 GMT. Expectations are for the nation’s EU-harmonized inflation rate to rise by 2.0% in yearly terms, the same pace as before, while on a monthly basis the figure is forecast to remain steady as well at 0.1%.
Out of the US, weekly jobless claims – initial and continued – due at 1230 GMT will be gathering attention. The number of initial benefits claimants for the week ending September 22 is anticipated to be 210k, little changed from the preceding week’s 201k. The world’s largest economy will also see the release of August durable goods. Headline orders are expected to rise by 1.9% m/m from -1.7% m/m in the preceding month, whilst the core durable orders (excluding transportations equipment) is forecast to inch up by 0.5% m/m from 0.1% m/m before. In addition, the final GDP growth estimate due at 1230 GMT is predicted to remain unchanged at 4.2% q/q in the second quarter. Also, the core PCE prices will come into view at the same time, while at 1400 GMT the focus will shift to pending home sales. The US dollar is still trading higher versus major currencies and stronger-than-expected data prints could help the greenback to extend gains later in the day.
Overnight at 2350 GMT, Japan’s unemployment rate for August will get published. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain the same at 2.5%, while the preliminary figures on industrial production are anticipated to rebound by 1.5% m/m from a decline of 0.2% previously. Retail sales for the month are forecast to tick higher by 2.1% y/y from 1.5% the prior month. The BoJ’s summary of opinions from its latest policy gathering is due to be released as well. A bit earlier, the Tokyo CPIs for September will also come out.
Meanwhile in the Eurozone, the focus will stay on Italy where the 2019 budget meeting is scheduled at 1800 GMT according to the Prime Minister’s office, while pre-meeting talks are also said to take place at 1400 GMT. News of delays in the budget meeting and echoes of resignation for the Italian Finance Minister announced earlier hint that discussions could be surrounded by conflicts.
Numerous speeches are on the agenda today with the BoE policymaker Haldane speaking at 1145 GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi at 1330 GMT and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at 1400 GMT. ECB chief economist Praet will be making remarks too at 1700 GMT. In the US, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will be talking at 1800 GMT, while later at 2030 GMT remarks on the US economy by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell will attract greater attention. At 2145 GMT, comments by the BoC Governor Steven Poloz could be of interest too.
Today, a two-day meeting is starting between the Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Germany with scope to improve relations between the two countries.
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