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US Open Preview – Euro bounce fades; Canadian inflation prints pending
August 17, 2018 11:26 amVideo
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Here are the latest developments in global markets:
Day ahead: Canadian inflation figures the highlight
The main data release on Friday will be inflation figures out of Canada. The University of Michigan (U of M) survey gauging US consumer confidence may also attract some attention. Beyond economic data, any remarks on Brexit from the relevant negotiators will be closely eyed, as will any developments in the US-China trade standoff and the Turkish saga.
At 1230 GMT, Canadian inflation numbers for July will be in the spotlight. The nation’s CPI rate is projected to have held steady at an elevated 2.5% in yearly terms, while no forecast is available for the core print, which excludes food and energy items; it stood at 1.3% in June. Indeed, gauges of inflationary pressures were optimistic during the month, with the nation’s Markit manufacturing PMI noting that prices charged for final products rose at the highest pace since the survey began in 2010. While another quarter-point rate hike by the BoC this year is practically fully priced in according to Canada’s OIS, a potential upside surprise in the CPIs could still stoke speculation for two more rate increases by year-end and thereby, benefit the loonie.
In the US, the preliminary U of M survey for August will be made public at 1400 GMT. Consumers are expected to have turned more optimistic during the month, with the relevant index projected to move slightly higher. Note though, this is usually not a major market mover for the dollar.
The situation in Turkey will likely remain at the forefront for a while more, even despite some signs of stabilization in recent days. The US Treasury threatened the nation with more sanctions yesterday, should Turkey not release pastor Brunson “quickly”. Beyond the political standoff with the US, investors will also look to a reassessment of Turkey’s credit rating by Standard and Poor’s today. The nation’s bonds are already rated as junk, but should the agency cut their rating even further, the lira could still come under renewed selling interest.
In energy markets, the weekly Baker Hughes survey tracking the number of active US oil rigs will be in focus at 1700 GMT.
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