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US Open Preview – Dollar struggles ahead of US CPI; European stocks bounce up
February 14, 2018 1:26 pmVideo
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Here are the latest developments in global markets:
Day ahead: US CPI figures awaited to make headlines; jittery stocks on edge
US data will dominate Wednesday’s economic calendar in the remainder of the day and particularly US consumer prices (CPI) are anticipated to attract the most attention as investors are eagerly looking for clues to justify their rising inflation expectations that triggered the recent turmoil in stock markets.
The CPI report delivered by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics at 1330 GMT is expected to be a significant clue on inflation as it is the first evidence on prices since the start of the stock market correction. The headline US CPI is forecasted to slow down from 2.1% to 1.9% y/y in January, whereas on a monthly basis the measure is expected to climb by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the core measure is said to inch down to 1.7% y/y from 1.8% seen in December. Although the Fed prefers to use the Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE) to adjust its monetary policy, any positive or negative CPI surprises could change the sentiment on the dollar during the day.
Monthly US retail sales, published along with the above data, could bring some volatility to the greenback as well. Forecasts are for retail sales to grow at a slower pace of 0.2% m/m in January compared to 0.4% in the preceding month, while core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, are anticipated to increase by 0.5% m/m, above the previous mark of 0.4%.
In other data out of the US, markets will see the release of business inventories at 1500 GMT and then focus on the EIA oil report at 1530 GMT. Analysts believe that the US crude oil inventories have risen by 2.825 million barrels in the week ending February 9, posting the third straight week of gains.
Before the day-end, Japan will publish December’s readings on core machinery orders at 2350 GMT. At midnight, Australian employment figures will also come into the light, probably showing that the employment change has narrowed even further in January, leaving the unemployment rate unaffected.
In stock markers, earnings releases will continue to be in the spotlight. Tripadvisor and Barrick Gold, the world’s biggest gold producer, will be among companies releasing quarterly results on Wednesday.
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