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US Open Preview – Dollar softer ahead of US jobs report; stocks tumble again as China-US trade row deepens
April 6, 2018 1:26 pmVideo
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Here are the latest developments in global markets:
Day ahead: NFP report and Powell speech awaited
March’s nonfarm payrolls report will dominate markets’ attention in the US session today, with traders hoping that a strong labour market and subdued wage growth will give them a reason to cheer amid growing trade war risks. The US economy is expected to add 193k jobs in March, down from February’s robust 313k figure but still an impressive number. Average hourly earnings are forecast for a 0.2% month-on-month growth. This would take the annual rate to 2.7%, up from last month’s 2.6% rate.
A stronger gain in wages could upset markets at a time when investor angst is high against a backdrop of increasing US protectionism. Should the jobs report raise concerns of an overheating labour market, expectations could rise again that the Fed will probably raise rates four times this year rather than the currently priced number of three.
In the event of an NFP-induced volatility, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have the chance to calm markets when he addresses the Economic Club of Chicago at 17:30 GMT. Investors will likely be watching for any signs of a hawkish tilt in Powell’s speech on the economic outlook and whether or not his views have altered since the March policy meeting following the growing trade dispute between the US and China.
The Canadian dollar will also be in focus today as job figures are released in Canada too. Employment in Canada is forecast to rise by 20k in March, up from 15.4k in the prior month. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.8%. A stronger-than-anticipated employment report could push the loonie to fresh highs, taking it closer to the C$1.27 level. The Canadian dollar hit a one-month high of C$1.2740 to the greenback yesterday, getting a lift from comments by Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, who said talks between the US, Canada and Mexico were “moving forward in a significant way”.
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