You are here: Home > articles > Forex > US Open Preview – Dollar climbs ahead of US CPI figures; European stocks edge up
US Open Preview – Dollar climbs ahead of US CPI figures; European stocks edge up
March 13, 2018 12:26 pmVideo
Latest News
- Video market update for April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures exit sideways move to the downside April 18, 2024
- Market Comment – US dollar on the back foot as nervousness lingers in equity markets April 18, 2024
- Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 18 April 18, 2024
- Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 18. Simple tips for beginners April 18, 2024
- Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 18. Simple tips for beginners April 18, 2024
- The Fed and global instability: a double blow to American markets April 18, 2024
- Forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Forecast for GBP/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Forecast for AUD/USD on April 18, 2024 April 18, 2024
- Outlook for GBP/USD on April 18. Pound was not impressed by the inflation data April 18, 2024
- Outlook for EUR/USD on April 18. Euro has fallen into a new flat April 18, 2024
- GBP/USD. Correction or trend reversal? April 18, 2024
- The FOMC will not lower rates in 2024 April 18, 2024
- Powell made a bold point, and Bailey did not report anything important April 18, 2024
- Will the euro take a risk? April 18, 2024
- Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 17-19, 2024: sell below $2,400 (21 SMA – double top) April 17, 2024
- Technical Analysis – GBPCAD hits a wall but bulls not ready to give up April 17, 2024
- Trading Signals for Ethereum (ETH/USD) for April 17-19, 2024: sell below $3,125 (21 SMA – 2/8 Murray) April 17, 2024
Here are the latest developments in global markets:
Day ahead: US CPI data to warn on inflation; UK’s Finance Minister issues Spring Statement
US consumer prices will be in focus later today at 1230 GMT in the absence of any other major economic releases. The headline CPI rate for the month of February is expected to inch up to 2.2% in yearly terms compared to 2.1% seen in January and the core equivalent which excludes volatile products such as food and energy is anticipated to remain steady at 1.8% y/y. While this is not the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – that would be the Personal Consumer Expenditure index – it would be the only evidence on prices ahead of the two-day FOMC policy meeting next week. Therefore, any upside surprise in the numbers could revive inflation fears and increase chances for four rate increases compared to three currently priced in the markets. In this case, the dollar could extend today’s gains. On the other hand, if CPI misses predictions, investors could doubt any significant rise in inflation pressures, pushing the dollar lower. Note that Friday’s NFP wage component came in below estimations, spreading speculations that inflation could remain below the Fed’s 2.0% target for longer.
In other data releases, the Westpac Banking Corporation will report on Australia’s consumer confidence for the month of March at 2330 GMT, while a few minutes later, at 2350 GMT Japan will publish readings on core machinery orders at 2350 GMT. After a sharp fall in December, analysts see a strong rebound in January’s manufacturing orders with the yearly gauge surging by 5.3% y/y. At the same time, the Bank of Japan will issue minutes of its policy meeting held on January 22-23.
In the UK, the Finance Minister, Philip Hammond, will unveil the latest economic forecasts in front of the Parliament at 1230 GMT as part of his Spring Statement. Expectations are for Hammond to give an upbeat tone on the country’s financial health, but he may postpone providing many details until the more important Autumn statement later this year. Traders will keep a close eye on any Brexit comments after the UK’s junior Brexit minister said that the EU and the UK are very close to reaching an agreement on the transition period.
In energy markets, investors will look to the private API inventory data at 2030 GMT, in order to gauge whether US production has really peaked, for the time being, something signaled by the decline in the Baker Hughes oil rig count on Friday.
In politics, all eyes will be turned to the US, where a special election will be held in Pennsylvania for an open seat in the House of Representatives. While a single House seat is usually not very important in US politics, this time is different. Back in 2016, Trump and the Republicans won this district by a landslide, but opinion polls now suggest that the Republican and Democratic candidates are running neck and neck. If the Democratic contender wins or comes close to winning, that would be a clear sign that the Republicans are at risk of losing districts they won easily in 2016. Such an outcome could heighten speculation that the Republicans may lose control of Congress at the mid-term elections later this year.
Related Posts: