Analysis and tips on how to trade GBP/USD

The price tested the 1.2444 mark when the MACD started to move upward from the zero level, which confirmed the accuracy of the buy point in the American session. The pair gained about 20 pips and faced some pressure.

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Today, the United Kingdom will deliver data on retail sales growth excluding fuel and business activity. Because the PMI in the manufacturing sector and the services sector is expected to come below forecasts, the pair is likely to face pressure in the European session. Similar data will be released in the US in the American session. In this light, a reversal may occur. The Fed’s Lisa Cook will give a speech today. However, her remarks are unlikely to draw investors’ attention because many FOMC officials have already given hawkish speeches this week.

Signal to buy

Scenario 1: we buy GBP when the price reaches the mark of 1.2446 (green line of the chart), targeting 1.2485 (thicker green line), where we close long positions and open short ones, allowing a correction of 30-35 pips. The pair may rise today if the PMI data in the UK comes upbeat. Important! Before buying the instrument, make sure the MACD is above zero and just starts moving up from this level.

Scenario 2: we also buy GBP when the price tests the mark of 1.2420 twice, with the MACD being in the oversold zone at that moment. This will limit the pair’s downside potential and lead to a bullish reversal in the market. The quote may go either to 1.2446 or 1.2485.

Signal to sell

Scenario 1: we sell GBP after the price tests the mark of 1.2420 (red line on the chart), which is likely to cause a rapid fall in value. The target is seen at 1.2385 where we close short positions and open long ones, allowing a correction of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. The pair may feel pressure if there is no bullish activity in the European session. Important! Before selling the instrument, make sure the MACD is below zero and just starts moving down from this level.

Scenario 2: we also sell GBP when the price tests the mark of 1.2446 twice, with the MACD being in the overbought zone at that moment. This will limit the pair’s upside potential and lead to a bearish reversal in the market. The quote may then go either to 1.2420 or 1.2385.

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Indicators on charts:

A thin green line indicates a buy entry point.

A thick green line is the estimated price for placing a take-profit order or closing positions manually since the quote will hardly grow above this level.

A thin red line indicates a sell entry point.

A thick red line is the estimated price for placing a take-profit order or closing positions manually because the quote will hardly fall below this level.

MACD. When entering the market, it is important to pay attention to the overbought and oversold zones.

Remember that novice forex traders should be very careful when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of important fundamentals, you should stay out of the market in order to avoid sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, make sure always to place a stop-loss order to minimize losses. Without it, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management but trade large volumes.

Remember that in order to succeed in the market, you should have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current state of the market are a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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