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Early in the American session, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0613 below the 21 SMA and within a symmetrical triangle pattern. In the last few hours, the euro has been bouncing above the 21 SMA (1.0573) but showing exhaustion.

The interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) will be published on Thursday and no changes in the key interest rate are expected. However, investors will be attentive to this data, which could cause strong volatility in EUR/USD.

According to the H4 chart, EUR/USD remains within a limited range between 1.0620 and 1.0500. The currency pair remains above 2/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA which indicates that a sharp break outside this range zone could define the next movement of the pair.

The key zone of 1.0620 acts as a resistance level for the pair. The mentioned level represents the confluence of the upper border of the symmetrical triangle pattern, 200 EMA, and 3/8 Murray. If the euro breaks above this area, there will be a recovery towards the next barrier at 1.0742 (4/8 Murray) and the instrument could then reach 5/8 Murray at 1.0854.

On the downside, while the euro is trading below the 200 EMA, it could reach support around the 21 SMA at 1.0573. The critical point will emerge if the pair breaks below 1.0565, which will mean the break of the symmetrical triangle pattern. If this scenario occurs, the euro could reach 2/8 Murray at 1.0498. Breaking this last level would cause a fall to 1.0450, the low of October 4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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