The price of the main cryptocurrency has moved north again, although market sentiment seems almost unchanged to be neutral. Bitcoin is still waiting for a significant volatility catalyst, and Glassnode provides more data that may shed more light on the current cycle.
Glassnode looked at a group of short-term investors (STH,) so we can assess the amount of BTC ‘holding time’ in this group. According to this measure (CDD 90) is extremely low and well below the two large panic capitulations that took place in June and November 2022. It follows that STHs are still generally reluctant to take profits in the current price range. They probably need more downward volatility (panic) or higher prices. Overall, these indicators paint a relatively constructive picture of belief among short-term BTC investors. Most of them are simply not interested in taking profits yet.
After the November low, USD-denominated assets held in BTC. For BTC tokens in the range of 2 to 3 years, it increased from 3.1% to 27.7%. A large part of the supply matures at the moment at the 2-year limit. This reflects the supply that was acquired after the May 2021 sale of 56,000 up to 29,000 USD. The chart below shows the changing percentage of USD wealth held in these age ranges. Its total value held by people aged 2 to 3 ranges from 3.1% to 27.7% (an increase of +24.6%). The wealth held by BTC in the range of 1 to 2 years is now: 43.5% to 28.3 (down -15.2% on an annualized basis). On the other hand, resources held for the period from half-life to 1 year range from 25.5% to 10.6% (a decrease of -14.9%).
Glassnode used a new variant of the RHODL indicator, comparing the wealth held by the supply over 2 years with BTC holdings in the age range of 6 months to 2 years. This can help you assess the balance between experienced traders (over 2 years) and holders in the current cycle (6 months to 2 years). Currently, this RHODL variant is growing exponentially, suggesting that a significant proportion of 2021-22 cycle holders are maturing into seasoned HODL holders.
Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen developing the potential Triangle pattern on the H4 time frame chart and when the pattern is completed, then the downside breakout should be made. So far the price still trades in a narrow range, awaiting for a breakout. Recently, the market reversed from the level of $27,488 again and is now trading back inside the narrow range. The intraday technical support is seen at $26,536 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $27,500. Please notice the market keeps trading below the 50 and 100 MA, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 – $27,485
WR2 – $27,111
WR1 – $26,974
Weekly Pivot – $26,736
WS1 – $26,599
WS2 – $26,321
WS3 – $25,986
Trading Outlook:
The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Crypto Industry News:
The price of the main cryptocurrency has moved north again, although market sentiment seems almost unchanged to be neutral. Bitcoin is still waiting for a significant volatility catalyst, and Glassnode provides more data that may shed more light on the current cycle.
Glassnode looked at a group of short-term investors (STH,) so we can assess the amount of BTC ‘holding time’ in this group. According to this measure (CDD 90) is extremely low and well below the two large panic capitulations that took place in June and November 2022. It follows that STHs are still generally reluctant to take profits in the current price range. They probably need more downward volatility (panic) or higher prices. Overall, these indicators paint a relatively constructive picture of belief among short-term BTC investors. Most of them are simply not interested in taking profits yet.
After the November low, USD-denominated assets held in BTC. For BTC tokens in the range of 2 to 3 years, it increased from 3.1% to 27.7%. A large part of the supply matures at the moment at the 2-year limit. This reflects the supply that was acquired after the May 2021 sale of 56,000 up to 29,000 USD. The chart below shows the changing percentage of USD wealth held in these age ranges. Its total value held by people aged 2 to 3 ranges from 3.1% to 27.7% (an increase of +24.6%). The wealth held by BTC in the range of 1 to 2 years is now: 43.5% to 28.3 (down -15.2% on an annualized basis). On the other hand, resources held for the period from half-life to 1 year range from 25.5% to 10.6% (a decrease of -14.9%).
Glassnode used a new variant of the RHODL indicator, comparing the wealth held by the supply over 2 years with BTC holdings in the age range of 6 months to 2 years. This can help you assess the balance between experienced traders (over 2 years) and holders in the current cycle (6 months to 2 years). Currently, this RHODL variant is growing exponentially, suggesting that a significant proportion of 2021-22 cycle holders are maturing into seasoned HODL holders.
Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen developing the potential Triangle pattern on the H4 time frame chart and when the pattern is completed, then the downside breakout should be made. So far the price still trades in a narrow range, awaiting for a breakout. Recently, the market reversed from the level of $27,488 again and is now trading back inside the narrow range. The intraday technical support is seen at $26,536 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $27,500. Please notice the market keeps trading below the 50 and 100 MA, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 – $27,485
WR2 – $27,111
WR1 – $26,974
Weekly Pivot – $26,736
WS1 – $26,599
WS2 – $26,321
WS3 – $25,986
Trading Outlook:
The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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