Technical Analysis – USDJPY struggles within near-term SMAs
May 12, 2023 11:27 am
USDJPY has been trading within a rising channel since the end of March and is currently hovering within the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs). After failing to sustain its surge above the 200-day (SMA), the pair retraced, although it made steady progress in the following few trading days.
The technical oscillators are showing some contradictory signs. The RSI is pointing slightly up near the neutral threshold of 50; however, the stochastic is ready to post a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 151.90 to 127.25 at 136.66 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 137.05. If the pair manages to break through the 137.90 key level, then it may switch the outlook to strongly bullish at 139.60, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci.
However, if the recent rebound were to fail, prices might fall back to test the recent support at the 23.6% Fibonacci of 132.95. If that support breaks, the bears could push for the uptrend line around 132.40.
To sum up, USDJPY appears to be recovering following a moderate negative correction, with its rising channel pattern still in place. The medium-term picture is optimistic, but only if prices rise above the 137.90 double top.
USDJPY has been trading within a rising channel since the end of March and is currently hovering within the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs). After failing to sustain its surge above the 200-day (SMA), the pair retraced, although it made steady progress in the following few trading days.
The technical oscillators are showing some contradictory signs. The RSI is pointing slightly up near the neutral threshold of 50; however, the stochastic is ready to post a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 151.90 to 127.25 at 136.66 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 137.05. If the pair manages to break through the 137.90 key level, then it may switch the outlook to strongly bullish at 139.60, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci.
However, if the recent rebound were to fail, prices might fall back to test the recent support at the 23.6% Fibonacci of 132.95. If that support breaks, the bears could push for the uptrend line around 132.40.
To sum up, USDJPY appears to be recovering following a moderate negative correction, with its rising channel pattern still in place. The medium-term picture is optimistic, but only if prices rise above the 137.90 double top.
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