Technical Analysis – USDJPY rebounds after brief bearish episode
October 24, 2023 11:26 am
USDJPY skids, slipping below moving averages in 4-hour chart
But selloff is already fading and rebound underway
Bigger picture remains neutral
USDJPY came under selling pressure during the past 24 hours, slipping to a one-week low of 149.31 earlier in today’s session. However, not only does the pair remain within its recent tight trading range, but also, the negative momentum appears to be receding.
After repeated failed knocks at the 150-door, USDJPY took a tumble, slipping below both the 20- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMA). The dive also took the price below the lower Bollinger band, signalling an imminent reversal, although the momentum oscillators did not turn overly bearish.
The RSI has now started to point upwards, reaching the 50 neutral threshold, while the MACD has flatlined at zero below its red signal line.
With the bulls attempting to push the price higher again, it will be essential to overcome the 20-period SMA, which is providing immediate resistance around 149.80, having already reclaimed the 50-period SMA. Clearing the 20-period SMA would set the stage for a re-challenge of the critical 150 level. However, even if there is a successful break above 150, the price would need to aim a little higher, such as the 200% Fibonacci extension of the August-September dip at 150.30 for a more convincing breakout.
Should the bearish forces manage to overpower again, the next stop south could be the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 149.17 before touching base with the 200-period SMA at 148.67.
In brief, the latest slide seems to have been short lived and hasn’t made much of a dent, with the near- to-medium-term price action remaining comfortably within the recent sideways range defined by the 150 ceiling and the 138.2% Fibonacci floor. Only a major advance above 150 would mark the resumption of the longer-term uptrend.
USDJPY skids, slipping below moving averages in 4-hour chart
But selloff is already fading and rebound underway
Bigger picture remains neutral
USDJPY came under selling pressure during the past 24 hours, slipping to a one-week low of 149.31 earlier in today’s session. However, not only does the pair remain within its recent tight trading range, but also, the negative momentum appears to be receding.
After repeated failed knocks at the 150-door, USDJPY took a tumble, slipping below both the 20- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMA). The dive also took the price below the lower Bollinger band, signalling an imminent reversal, although the momentum oscillators did not turn overly bearish.
The RSI has now started to point upwards, reaching the 50 neutral threshold, while the MACD has flatlined at zero below its red signal line.
With the bulls attempting to push the price higher again, it will be essential to overcome the 20-period SMA, which is providing immediate resistance around 149.80, having already reclaimed the 50-period SMA. Clearing the 20-period SMA would set the stage for a re-challenge of the critical 150 level. However, even if there is a successful break above 150, the price would need to aim a little higher, such as the 200% Fibonacci extension of the August-September dip at 150.30 for a more convincing breakout.
Should the bearish forces manage to overpower again, the next stop south could be the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 149.17 before touching base with the 200-period SMA at 148.67.
In brief, the latest slide seems to have been short lived and hasn’t made much of a dent, with the near- to-medium-term price action remaining comfortably within the recent sideways range defined by the 150 ceiling and the 138.2% Fibonacci floor. Only a major advance above 150 would mark the resumption of the longer-term uptrend.
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