Technical Analysis – US 500 gets rejected by 50-day SMA
August 28, 2023 3:28 pm
The US 500 stock index (cash) had been undergoing a pullback after marching to a fresh 16-month high of 4,606 on July 27. Even though the price managed to rebound at 4,342, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 3,486-4,606 upleg, its upside got capped by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
The short-term oscillators currently suggest that bullish forces are strengthening but have not taken control yet. Specifically, the MACD is gaining ground but remains below zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is ticking higher slightly below its 50-neutral mark.
Should buying interest persist, the price could initially face the July resistance of 4,460, which coincides with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Conquering this barricade, the bulls may attack the 2023 peak of 4,606. A break above that zone could trigger a rally towards the March 2022 high of 4,637.
On the flipside, if the bears try to regain the upper hand, the 23.6% Fibo of 4,342 could be the first barrier to claim. Failing to halt there, the price could challenge the 38.2% Fibo of 4,178, which also acted as resistance in February. Further retreats might then come to a halt at the 50.0% Fibo of 4,046.
In brief, the US 500 index has regained some traction in the aftermath of the Jackson Hole symposium, appearing ready to revisit the 50-day SMA. Can the bulls make a full comeback?
The US 500 stock index (cash) had been undergoing a pullback after marching to a fresh 16-month high of 4,606 on July 27. Even though the price managed to rebound at 4,342, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 3,486-4,606 upleg, its upside got capped by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
The short-term oscillators currently suggest that bullish forces are strengthening but have not taken control yet. Specifically, the MACD is gaining ground but remains below zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is ticking higher slightly below its 50-neutral mark.
Should buying interest persist, the price could initially face the July resistance of 4,460, which coincides with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Conquering this barricade, the bulls may attack the 2023 peak of 4,606. A break above that zone could trigger a rally towards the March 2022 high of 4,637.
On the flipside, if the bears try to regain the upper hand, the 23.6% Fibo of 4,342 could be the first barrier to claim. Failing to halt there, the price could challenge the 38.2% Fibo of 4,178, which also acted as resistance in February. Further retreats might then come to a halt at the 50.0% Fibo of 4,046.
In brief, the US 500 index has regained some traction in the aftermath of the Jackson Hole symposium, appearing ready to revisit the 50-day SMA. Can the bulls make a full comeback?
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