Technical Analysis – US 30 cash index sets new 2023 high, but current upleg too aggressive
July 26, 2023 1:27 pm
The US 30 cash index is edging lower today as the latest rally appears to have halted at the busy 35,091-35,496 range. The US 30 index actually registered a new 2023 high and its highest print since April 2022, finally overcoming the December 13, 2022 peak.
The momentum indicators remain mostly supportive of the current upleg. More specifically, the RSI has reached its highest point since the August 2022 rally, but it appears to have peaked. Similarly, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging higher and thus signals the presence of a strong bullish trend in the market. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator remains in its overbought territory, currently battling with its moving average (MA). Any sign of a reversal in this indicator would be seen as a bearish signal.
If the bulls are still hungry, they would try to overcome the resistance set by the 35,091-35,496 range, and hencehave the chance of achieving a new 2023 high. The path would then be clear for a move towards the January 5, 2022 high at 36,951.
On the flip side, the bears were caught unprepared by the latest upleg and are anxiously looking for a pullback. They would enjoy a drop below both the December 13, 2022 and August 16, 2022 highs at 34,930 and 34,280 respectively, but their main target remains the 33,462-33,754 range. This is populated by the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the October 1, 2021 low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 5, 2022 – October 3, 2022 downtrend.
To sum up, US 30 cash index bulls are probably on top of the world following the current upleg, but they should not ignore some early rally-exhaustion signs that are hesitantly manifesting.
The US 30 cash index is edging lower today as the latest rally appears to have halted at the busy 35,091-35,496 range. The US 30 index actually registered a new 2023 high and its highest print since April 2022, finally overcoming the December 13, 2022 peak.
The momentum indicators remain mostly supportive of the current upleg. More specifically, the RSI has reached its highest point since the August 2022 rally, but it appears to have peaked. Similarly, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging higher and thus signals the presence of a strong bullish trend in the market. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator remains in its overbought territory, currently battling with its moving average (MA). Any sign of a reversal in this indicator would be seen as a bearish signal.
If the bulls are still hungry, they would try to overcome the resistance set by the 35,091-35,496 range, and hence have the chance of achieving a new 2023 high. The path would then be clear for a move towards the January 5, 2022 high at 36,951.
On the flip side, the bears were caught unprepared by the latest upleg and are anxiously looking for a pullback. They would enjoy a drop below both the December 13, 2022 and August 16, 2022 highs at 34,930 and 34,280 respectively, but their main target remains the 33,462-33,754 range. This is populated by the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the October 1, 2021 low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 5, 2022 – October 3, 2022 downtrend.
To sum up, US 30 cash index bulls are probably on top of the world following the current upleg, but they should not ignore some early rally-exhaustion signs that are hesitantly manifesting.
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