Technical Analysis – US 30 cash index bulls anxiously look for bullish signs
May 11, 2023 10:25 am
The US 30 cash index is hovering around the 33,550 area as the 34,280 level seems to haunt the index bulls. They are gathering their breath and trying to figure out the best way to stage an upside breakout. The recent series of lower highs is not a positive sign, but they are focusing on the stochastic oscillator. This indicator has broken above its moving average and a sustained move higher would be the signal the bulls might be waiting for.
Should the bulls decide to retest the August 16, 2022 high at 34,280, they firstly have to break the 33,518-754 area populated by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 5, 2022 – October 3, 2022 downtrend, and the October 1, 2021 low. Even higher, the twin December 13, 2022 and May 10, 2021 highs at 34,930 and 35,091 respectively would clearly test their determination.
With the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) confirming that the short-term bullish trend from the mid-March lows has ended, and the RSI trading almost at its 50-threshold, the US 30 bears are plotting their strategy. If assisted by the overall market sentiment, they would be keen on a break of the 33,167-33,364 area defined by the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They would then come up against the busy 33,028-33,097 area set by the June 21, 2021 low, a tad above the crucial 32,755-778 range, populated by the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200-day SMA respectively.
To sum up, the repeated failures at the 34,280 level appear to have confused the bulls. The path of least resistance is for lower US 30 prints, putting extra pressure on bulls to react.
The US 30 cash index is hovering around the 33,550 area as the 34,280 level seems to haunt the index bulls. They are gathering their breath and trying to figure out the best way to stage an upside breakout. The recent series of lower highs is not a positive sign, but they are focusing on the stochastic oscillator. This indicator has broken above its moving average and a sustained move higher would be the signal the bulls might be waiting for.
Should the bulls decide to retest the August 16, 2022 high at 34,280, they firstly have to break the 33,518-754 area populated by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 5, 2022 – October 3, 2022 downtrend, and the October 1, 2021 low. Even higher, the twin December 13, 2022 and May 10, 2021 highs at 34,930 and 35,091 respectively would clearly test their determination.
With the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) confirming that the short-term bullish trend from the mid-March lows has ended, and the RSI trading almost at its 50-threshold, the US 30 bears are plotting their strategy. If assisted by the overall market sentiment, they would be keen on a break of the 33,167-33,364 area defined by the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They would then come up against the busy 33,028-33,097 area set by the June 21, 2021 low, a tad above the crucial 32,755-778 range, populated by the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200-day SMA respectively.
To sum up, the repeated failures at the 34,280 level appear to have confused the bulls. The path of least resistance is for lower US 30 prints, putting extra pressure on bulls to react.
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