Technical Analysis – US 100 cash index rally halts at key level
June 20, 2023 8:27 am
The US 100 index is edging slightly lower after recording another 2023 high. The index stands around 30% higher than the March 13, 2023 low, with the move since the April consolidation being almost exponential. The bears are again trying to record a small pullback. Their last two attempts to stage a correction, in May 22 and June 6 respectively, proved unsuccessful as the bulls used this price action to take a breather before pushing the US 100 index even higher.
Some tentative cracks have appeared at the momentum indicators. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) remains elevated, a tad below its highest level since November 26, 2021. However, it appears to have reached its peak as it is now pointing downwards. A continuation of this move would signal that the upleg might have ended. In the meantime, the stochastic oscillator continues its journey at the overbought territory without showing any significant exhaustion signs.
If the bulls remain committed to making higher highs, they would try to push the US 100 index above the 15,258-15,411 range set by the March 30, 2022 high and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 22, 2021 – October 13, 2022 downtrend. Even higher, the September 6, 2021 high of 15,708 might not trouble the bulls much, but it will open the door for the all-time high of 16,767.
On the other hand, the bears really want the current consolidation to have legs. If this proves to be the case, they would try to push the index toward the 14,346-14,382 range and the April 29, 2021 high at 14,075 respectively. Such a drop would be a significant short-term win for the bears and help them build momentum into tackling the busier 13,600-13,774 range.
To sum up, the US 100 cash index rally halted at 15,258 as the bulls appear to be taking a breather. The bears would love a strong correction but the overall technical picture is not yet on their side.
The US 100 index is edging slightly lower after recording another 2023 high. The index stands around 30% higher than the March 13, 2023 low, with the move since the April consolidation being almost exponential. The bears are again trying to record a small pullback. Their last two attempts to stage a correction, in May 22 and June 6 respectively, proved unsuccessful as the bulls used this price action to take a breather before pushing the US 100 index even higher.
Some tentative cracks have appeared at the momentum indicators. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) remains elevated, a tad below its highest level since November 26, 2021. However, it appears to have reached its peak as it is now pointing downwards. A continuation of this move would signal that the upleg might have ended. In the meantime, the stochastic oscillator continues its journey at the overbought territory without showing any significant exhaustion signs.
If the bulls remain committed to making higher highs, they would try to push the US 100 index above the 15,258-15,411 range set by the March 30, 2022 high and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 22, 2021 – October 13, 2022 downtrend. Even higher, the September 6, 2021 high of 15,708 might not trouble the bulls much, but it will open the door for the all-time high of 16,767.
On the other hand, the bears really want the current consolidation to have legs. If this proves to be the case, they would try to push the index toward the 14,346-14,382 range and the April 29, 2021 high at 14,075 respectively. Such a drop would be a significant short-term win for the bears and help them build momentum into tackling the busier 13,600-13,774 range.
To sum up, the US 100 cash index rally halted at 15,258 as the bulls appear to be taking a breather. The bears would love a strong correction but the overall technical picture is not yet on their side.
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