Technical Analysis – Outlook 2018: GBPJPY attempts to break above upward sloping triangle
January 4, 2018 3:25 pm
GBPJPY surged more than 5% over the previous year and during December the price climbed to a fresh one-and-a-half year high at 153.40. In the monthly chart, the pair is moving slightly below the 50-exponential moving average, which is acting as strong resistance level for the bears. The MACD and the RSI are standing above the trigger line and 50 level respectively, signaling neutral to bullish momentum.
Moving on to the long-term timeframe (weekly chart), the price is developing within an upward sloping triangle following a descending move, since October 2016. The aforementioned pattern is one of a continuation, so the prediction is a breakdown below the triangle. The next level to have in mind to the downside is the 138.60 support level, however, the price first needs to go through the 50 and 100-week EMAs, currently at 154.20 and 158.20 respectively.
Conversely, if the bulls take the lead and penetrate the 200-week SMA, which coincides with 153.40, this could drive the pair further up at 160.20, which overlaps with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level with the peak at 196.00 and the bottom at 124.00.
Remaining on the weekly basis, the technical indicators are confirming the recent upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding in the bullish territory and is pointing to the upside. However, the MACD oscillator is flattening above the zero line, near its trigger line, indicating a neutral move. As a side note, the three EMAs (50, 100 and 200) are sloping north, endorsing the upward scenario.
GBPJPY surged more than 5% over the previous year and during December the price climbed to a fresh one-and-a-half year high at 153.40. In the monthly chart, the pair is moving slightly below the 50-exponential moving average, which is acting as strong resistance level for the bears. The MACD and the RSI are standing above the trigger line and 50 level respectively, signaling neutral to bullish momentum.
Moving on to the long-term timeframe (weekly chart), the price is developing within an upward sloping triangle following a descending move, since October 2016. The aforementioned pattern is one of a continuation, so the prediction is a breakdown below the triangle. The next level to have in mind to the downside is the 138.60 support level, however, the price first needs to go through the 50 and 100-week EMAs, currently at 154.20 and 158.20 respectively.
Conversely, if the bulls take the lead and penetrate the 200-week SMA, which coincides with 153.40, this could drive the pair further up at 160.20, which overlaps with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level with the peak at 196.00 and the bottom at 124.00.
Remaining on the weekly basis, the technical indicators are confirming the recent upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding in the bullish territory and is pointing to the upside. However, the MACD oscillator is flattening above the zero line, near its trigger line, indicating a neutral move. As a side note, the three EMAs (50, 100 and 200) are sloping north, endorsing the upward scenario.
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