Technical Analysis – Dollar index holds below key barrier after mixed NFP
September 1, 2023 2:27 pm
The US dollar index changed course to the downside after its bullish wave that started from the 15-month low of 99.19 in mid-July peaked near the support-turned-resistance line at 104.35 last week.
A mixed US nonfarm payrolls report could not help the market on Friday, but the support area around the 20-and 200-day SMAs, which assisted the market in erasing half of its latest decline yesterday, is still intact.
Although the negative reversal in the momentum indicators is not favoring the bulls, the market might keep battling the 103.65-103.83 wall formed by the support trendline from July’s lows and the resistance line from March 2023. A decisive move above the 105.00-105.50 ceiling will also be necessary to switch the outlook to bullish. If efforts prove successful, the index could rise exponentially towards the 107.00 round level and the 50% Fibonacci mark of the 114.71-99.19 downtrend.
Alternatively, a negative correction below the 200-day SMA could stretch towards the 50-day SMA at 102.16. Even lower, the bears may face a busy session within the 100.65-100.30 territory. If the sell-off picks up steam there, the door will open for July’s trough of 99.19.
In summary, the US dollar index is preserving a cautious tone. A significant advance above 105.50 could be the key for a bull market.
The US dollar index changed course to the downside after its bullish wave that started from the 15-month low of 99.19 in mid-July peaked near the support-turned-resistance line at 104.35 last week.
A mixed US nonfarm payrolls report could not help the market on Friday, but the support area around the 20-and 200-day SMAs, which assisted the market in erasing half of its latest decline yesterday, is still intact.
Although the negative reversal in the momentum indicators is not favoring the bulls, the market might keep battling the 103.65-103.83 wall formed by the support trendline from July’s lows and the resistance line from March 2023. A decisive move above the 105.00-105.50 ceiling will also be necessary to switch the outlook to bullish. If efforts prove successful, the index could rise exponentially towards the 107.00 round level and the 50% Fibonacci mark of the 114.71-99.19 downtrend.
Alternatively, a negative correction below the 200-day SMA could stretch towards the 50-day SMA at 102.16. Even lower, the bears may face a busy session within the 100.65-100.30 territory. If the sell-off picks up steam there, the door will open for July’s trough of 99.19.
In summary, the US dollar index is preserving a cautious tone. A significant advance above 105.50 could be the key for a bull market.
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