Technical Analysis – AUDUSD edges higher but it appears to be a low conviction move
September 15, 2023 1:25 pm
AUDUSD bulls anxiously pushing for a sizeable bullish move
The pair remains close to the new 2023 low recorded on September 6.
Only the stochastic oscillator supports the muted upleg at this juncture.
AUDUSD is experiencing its third straight green candle, but the market is probably taking a defensive stance ahead of next week’s key events. The bulls’ efforts appear to have stopped at the key 0.6458 level, but the stochastic oscillator’s next move could give them the necessary boost.
In the meantime, the stochastic oscillator is edging higher, surpassing its September 4 peak, and looking poised for a strong upleg. However, the same cannot be said for the remaining momentum indicators. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) appears to be uninterested in the bulls’ efforts and is stuck below its 25-threshold, and the RSI remains stuck below its midpoint, despite the recent rebound.
Mixing up the technical picture, a double-top pattern appears to be forming with the neckline set at the 0.6521 region. A move above this level is necessary for this bullish pattern to become valid.
Should the bulls finally manage to break the May 31, 2023 low at 0.6458, they could come up against the busy 0.6521-0.6574 region, populated by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April 5, 2022 – October 13, 2022 downtrend, the rectangle’s lower boundary and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Even higher, the 100-day SMA stands at 0.6615.
On the flip side, the bears are in waiting mode but paying attention to the current rebound. Should they take over the market reins, they could try to overcome the September 6, 2023 low at 0.6356 and then possibly set sail for the November 3, 2022 low at 0.6170.
To sum up, the new AUDUSD low for 2023 prompted a response from the bulls. However, for the current move to snowball, more support from the momentum indicators and a break above the busy 0.6458 level is needed.
AUDUSD bulls anxiously pushing for a sizeable bullish move
The pair remains close to the new 2023 low recorded on September 6.
Only the stochastic oscillator supports the muted upleg at this juncture.
AUDUSD is experiencing its third straight green candle, but the market is probably taking a defensive stance ahead of next week’s key events. The bulls’ efforts appear to have stopped at the key 0.6458 level, but the stochastic oscillator’s next move could give them the necessary boost.
In the meantime, the stochastic oscillator is edging higher, surpassing its September 4 peak, and looking poised for a strong upleg. However, the same cannot be said for the remaining momentum indicators. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) appears to be uninterested in the bulls’ efforts and is stuck below its 25-threshold, and the RSI remains stuck below its midpoint, despite the recent rebound.
Mixing up the technical picture, a double-top pattern appears to be forming with the neckline set at the 0.6521 region. A move above this level is necessary for this bullish pattern to become valid.
Should the bulls finally manage to break the May 31, 2023 low at 0.6458, they could come up against the busy 0.6521-0.6574 region, populated by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April 5, 2022 – October 13, 2022 downtrend, the rectangle’s lower boundary and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Even higher, the 100-day SMA stands at 0.6615.
On the flip side, the bears are in waiting mode but paying attention to the current rebound. Should they take over the market reins, they could try to overcome the September 6, 2023 low at 0.6356 and then possibly set sail for the November 3, 2022 low at 0.6170.
To sum up, the new AUDUSD low for 2023 prompted a response from the bulls. However, for the current move to snowball, more support from the momentum indicators and a break above the busy 0.6458 level is needed.
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