Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bounces off 200-period SMA but struggles to maintain momentum
June 27, 2023 3:28 pm
AUDUSD managed to hit the brakes on its slide as it landed on the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), bouncing somewhat higher in the aftermath. But the victory was a hard-fought battle for the bulls and the rebound is already looking shaky in the four-hour chart.
The stochastic oscillator suggests the near-term bias has turned negative again as the %K line has dipped below its slower-moving counterpart. The RSI is also edging lower but not by much and it remains comfortably above the 50 level, indicating that the downside pressure is weak.
Nevertheless, even if the bearish forces intensify, the path to the south is heavily fortified, as apart from the 200-period SMA, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June upleg at 0.6678 is also ready to provide immediate support.
Should this support crumble, however, the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.6626 and the 78.6% Fibonacci of 0.6552. which correspond with the highs from late May and early June, would be the obvious targets for the bears.
On the other hand, a fresh upside push could help the price aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.6730. But a further stretch, at least until the 50-period SMA, currently at 0.6774, is needed to turn any upswing into a sustainable rally, while a break above the 0.6800 handle would add even more traction for the bulls.
In brief, the immediate risk for AUDUSD is slightly tilted to the downside but a selloff is subject to successfully piercing below the 200-period SMA. As long as this support holds, the short-to-medium picture should stay neutral and the pair will stand a chance of making a recovery, although any rebound will have to reach 0.6800 if it is to last.
AUDUSD managed to hit the brakes on its slide as it landed on the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), bouncing somewhat higher in the aftermath. But the victory was a hard-fought battle for the bulls and the rebound is already looking shaky in the four-hour chart.
The stochastic oscillator suggests the near-term bias has turned negative again as the %K line has dipped below its slower-moving counterpart. The RSI is also edging lower but not by much and it remains comfortably above the 50 level, indicating that the downside pressure is weak.
Nevertheless, even if the bearish forces intensify, the path to the south is heavily fortified, as apart from the 200-period SMA, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June upleg at 0.6678 is also ready to provide immediate support.
Should this support crumble, however, the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.6626 and the 78.6% Fibonacci of 0.6552. which correspond with the highs from late May and early June, would be the obvious targets for the bears.
On the other hand, a fresh upside push could help the price aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.6730. But a further stretch, at least until the 50-period SMA, currently at 0.6774, is needed to turn any upswing into a sustainable rally, while a break above the 0.6800 handle would add even more traction for the bulls.
In brief, the immediate risk for AUDUSD is slightly tilted to the downside but a selloff is subject to successfully piercing below the 200-period SMA. As long as this support holds, the short-to-medium picture should stay neutral and the pair will stand a chance of making a recovery, although any rebound will have to reach 0.6800 if it is to last.
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