Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures consolidate near 3-month peak
July 27, 2023 8:28 am
WTI oil futures (September delivery) have been in a steady uptrend since late June, crossing above both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as the descending trendline that connects their lower highs since September 2022. However, in the last couple of daily sessions, oil has shown signs of consolidation near its three-month peak of 79.90.
The momentum indicators currently suggest that bullish forces are holding the upper hand. Specifically, the RSI has flatlined slightly below its 70-overbought threshold, while the MACD is strengthening above both zero and its red signal line at its highest level since April.
Should the recent advance extend, the bulls could target the March peak of 81.00. Piercing through that zone, the price might challenge the 2023 high of 83.40 registered in April. Further advances could then cease at the November 2022 high of 92.50.
Alternatively, if the rebound falters and the price reverses downwards, the previous resistance of 77.00 could serve as initial support. Sliding beneath that floor, oil may descend towards 73.80 before the December 2022 bottom of 70.30 gets tested. Even lower, the 67.00 hurdle, which held strong three times during May and June, could provide downside protection.
In brief, WTI oil futures have been trading sideways for the past few sessions after failing to post a fresh three-month high. Nevertheless, it is likely that the price is building a base ahead of an upcoming bullish breakout as near-term risks remain tilted to the upside.
WTI oil futures (September delivery) have been in a steady uptrend since late June, crossing above both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as the descending trendline that connects their lower highs since September 2022. However, in the last couple of daily sessions, oil has shown signs of consolidation near its three-month peak of 79.90.
The momentum indicators currently suggest that bullish forces are holding the upper hand. Specifically, the RSI has flatlined slightly below its 70-overbought threshold, while the MACD is strengthening above both zero and its red signal line at its highest level since April.
Should the recent advance extend, the bulls could target the March peak of 81.00. Piercing through that zone, the price might challenge the 2023 high of 83.40 registered in April. Further advances could then cease at the November 2022 high of 92.50.
Alternatively, if the rebound falters and the price reverses downwards, the previous resistance of 77.00 could serve as initial support. Sliding beneath that floor, oil may descend towards 73.80 before the December 2022 bottom of 70.30 gets tested. Even lower, the 67.00 hurdle, which held strong three times during May and June, could provide downside protection.
In brief, WTI oil futures have been trading sideways for the past few sessions after failing to post a fresh three-month high. Nevertheless, it is likely that the price is building a base ahead of an upcoming bullish breakout as near-term risks remain tilted to the upside.
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