Technical Analysis – Intel in risk of sizeable correction if another breakout proves false
June 7, 2023 8:27 am
Intel managed to record a strong day yesterday, trying desperately to join the AI frenzy that has been driving the market aggressively higher. However, it remains stuck inside the wide 24.63-31.27 rectangle that has formed since September 2, 2022. Three false upward breakouts have taken place up to now, increasing the importance and the difficulty in breaking this range-trading pattern.
Market participants are anxiously looking for some signal from the momentum indicators. However, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) has returned below its 25-threshold, confirming the lack of conviction in the latest moves, and the stochastic oscillator is trading sideways. At least, the convergence of 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) raises the chances of a sizeable move ahead.
Should the bulls decide to stage another rally, their initial target would be to break the 31.16-31.27 range that is defined by the November 15, 2022 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March 30, 2022 – October 11, 2022 downtrend respectively. The path then becomes trickier as the bulls would potentially face significant resistance at the April 12, 2021 downward sloping trendline, just below the July 10, 2017 low of 33.26.
On the other side, the bears could target the 28.91-30.57 range that is populated by the 100- and 200-day SMAs, and the March 26, 2015 low. If successfully broken, their eyes could then be set at the June 4, 2013 high of 25.97 and, more importantly, at the October 11, 2022 low of 24.63.
Putting everything together, the bulls are anxiously trying to stage a successful upward breakout. However, they appear to lack the strength for such a move, raising the possibility for a significant correction towards the lower boundary of the rectangle.
Intel managed to record a strong day yesterday, trying desperately to join the AI frenzy that has been driving the market aggressively higher. However, it remains stuck inside the wide 24.63-31.27 rectangle that has formed since September 2, 2022. Three false upward breakouts have taken place up to now, increasing the importance and the difficulty in breaking this range-trading pattern.
Market participants are anxiously looking for some signal from the momentum indicators. However, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) has returned below its 25-threshold, confirming the lack of conviction in the latest moves, and the stochastic oscillator is trading sideways. At least, the convergence of 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) raises the chances of a sizeable move ahead.
Should the bulls decide to stage another rally, their initial target would be to break the 31.16-31.27 range that is defined by the November 15, 2022 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March 30, 2022 – October 11, 2022 downtrend respectively. The path then becomes trickier as the bulls would potentially face significant resistance at the April 12, 2021 downward sloping trendline, just below the July 10, 2017 low of 33.26.
On the other side, the bears could target the 28.91-30.57 range that is populated by the 100- and 200-day SMAs, and the March 26, 2015 low. If successfully broken, their eyes could then be set at the June 4, 2013 high of 25.97 and, more importantly, at the October 11, 2022 low of 24.63.
Putting everything together, the bulls are anxiously trying to stage a successful upward breakout. However, they appear to lack the strength for such a move, raising the possibility for a significant correction towards the lower boundary of the rectangle.
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