IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 25/11/2015
November 25, 2015 9:35 am
Main points for Today
• Dollar falls while yen and commodity currencies rally • The dollar weakened as investors continued to cut long positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, while geopolitical tensions after Turkey downed a Russian warplane caused a flight-to-safety. • In the meantime, commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) performed well, in part to a minor rebound in oil prices. On top of that, the AUD gained further as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens dampened expectations for further rate cuts at their next week meeting. He said “we’ve got Christmas, we should just chill out, come back and see what the data says.” • Given that the benchmark price of iron ore, one of Australia’s major exports declined further, I believe that any advances in AUD/USD are likely to stay limited. I would prefer to exploit AUD strength against NZD. • Today: • France: Consumer confidence for November. • Norway: AKU unemployment rate for September. The figure is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6%, thus the reaction on NOK could stay muted. • US: Durable goods orders, personal income and personal spending and the yoy rates of the PCE deflator and core PCE, all for October. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 20. The preliminary Markit service-sector PMI and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, both for November, are also due to be released. We have made the case several times that USD is data-driven. Therefore, significant positive surprises are needed for the dollar to strengthen further. • New Zealand: Trade deficit for October is expected to decline a bit, which could prove NZD-positive. • Speakers: ECB Vice President Vitor Costancio, RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle, and UK finance Minister George Osborne speak.
Main points for Today
• Dollar falls while yen and commodity currencies rally
• The dollar weakened as investors continued to cut long positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, while geopolitical tensions after Turkey downed a Russian warplane caused a flight-to-safety.
• In the meantime, commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) performed well, in part to a minor rebound in oil prices. On top of that, the AUD gained further as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens dampened expectations for further rate cuts at their next week meeting. He said “we’ve got Christmas, we should just chill out, come back and see what the data says.”
• Given that the benchmark price of iron ore, one of Australia’s major exports declined further, I believe that any advances in AUD/USD are likely to stay limited. I would prefer to exploit AUD strength against NZD.
• Today:
• France: Consumer confidence for November.
• Norway: AKU unemployment rate for September. The figure is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6%, thus the reaction on NOK could stay muted.
• US: Durable goods orders, personal income and personal spending and the yoy rates of the PCE deflator and core PCE, all for October. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 20. The preliminary Markit service-sector PMI and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, both for November, are also due to be released. We have made the case several times that USD is data-driven. Therefore, significant positive surprises are needed for the dollar to strengthen further.
• New Zealand: Trade deficit for October is expected to decline a bit, which could prove NZD-positive.
• Speakers: ECB Vice President Vitor Costancio, RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle, and UK finance Minister George Osborne speak.
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