IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 25/01/2016
January 25, 2016 9:52 am
Oil prices edge higher partly due to US blizzard • Oil prices and Asian stock markets began the week on a stronger note, extending gains from Friday, after a blizzard paralyzed much of the US east coast during the weekend. • The rise in oil prices came as a result of investors speculating a rise in demand for heating oil in the US. • If the cold spell in parts of the northern hemisphere continues in the following days, we could see oil prices gain even further, as demand rises. In such an event, we could see CAD and NOK extend their recent gains.
Today: • Germany: The Ifo survey for December is forecast to show that both the expectations and business climate indices have declined. This could add some selling pressure on EUR.
This week: • Tuesday: No major events or indicators. • Wednesday: FOMC rate decision. The Fed is expected to remain on hold at this meeting, in order to assess the condition of the economy and financial markets after its Dec. meeting. The focus will shift on the statement accompanying the decision for any signals that the FOMC is concerned about the recent global developments. Also, RBNZ policy meeting. Having just cut rates at the last meeting, we expect the Bank to remain on hold, despite the close to zero inflation and the slowdown in China. We expect the RBNZ to push back the date by which it expects to meet its inflation target due to low oil prices and leave the door open for additional easing. • Thursday: The UK 1st estimate of Q4 GDP is forecast to show a slight acceleration, which could support the pound. From the US, the durable goods orders for December are forecast to have fallen. • Friday: BoJ rate decision. We expect the Bank to remain on hold, and Gov. Kuroda to maintain his optimistic view that the underlying trend in prices is improving. In Eurozone, the CPI estimate for December is forecast to have accelerated. Also, the US 1st estimate of Q4 GDP is forecast to show a considerable slowdown, which could prove a bit USD-negative.
Oil prices edge higher partly due to US blizzard
• Oil prices and Asian stock markets began the week on a stronger note, extending gains from Friday, after a blizzard paralyzed much of the US east coast during the weekend.
• The rise in oil prices came as a result of investors speculating a rise in demand for heating oil in the US.
• If the cold spell in parts of the northern hemisphere continues in the following days, we could see oil prices gain even further, as demand rises. In such an event, we could see CAD and NOK extend their recent gains.
Today:
• Germany: The Ifo survey for December is forecast to show that both the expectations and business climate indices have declined. This could add some selling pressure on EUR.
This week:
• Tuesday: No major events or indicators.
• Wednesday: FOMC rate decision. The Fed is expected to remain on hold at this meeting, in order to assess the condition of the economy and financial markets after its Dec. meeting. The focus will shift on the statement accompanying the decision for any signals that the FOMC is concerned about the recent global developments. Also, RBNZ policy meeting. Having just cut rates at the last meeting, we expect the Bank to remain on hold, despite the close to zero inflation and the slowdown in China. We expect the RBNZ to push back the date by which it expects to meet its inflation target due to low oil prices and leave the door open for additional easing.
• Thursday: The UK 1st estimate of Q4 GDP is forecast to show a slight acceleration, which could support the pound. From the US, the durable goods orders for December are forecast to have fallen.
• Friday: BoJ rate decision. We expect the Bank to remain on hold, and Gov. Kuroda to maintain his optimistic view that the underlying trend in prices is improving. In Eurozone, the CPI estimate for December is forecast to have accelerated. Also, the US 1st estimate of Q4 GDP is forecast to show a considerable slowdown, which could prove a bit USD-negative.
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