IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 15/12/2015
December 15, 2015 12:09 pm
• RBA releases monetary policy minutes • At this meeting, the Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged amid signs of improvement of business conditions and a somewhat stronger growth in employment. • In the minutes of the meeting, the Bank reiterated that the exchange rate was adjusting to significant declines in commodity prices and boosting demand for domestic production, which had translated to stronger employment growth. Their upbeat view was confirmed some days following the meeting by the Australian employment report, which showed the biggest increase in net employment during November in over 15 years and a decrease in the unemployment rate. • Even though the Bank maintained the likelihood for further easing, the overall tone was neutral and the upbeat view over the economy supported AUD briefly. • Today: • Sweden: Riksbank monetary policy meeting. Expectations are for the Bank to remain on hold due to economic activity strengthening and inflation showing a clear upward trend. Moreover, the expected SEK appreciation against the EUR following the December 3rd ECB meeting did not materialize, which leaves room for the Bank to wait a bit more before acting again. As a result, the focus will shift on the statement accompanying the decision for any signs that Sweden’s economy is gaining momentum, which could support SEK a bit. • UK: The CPI data for November is forecast to show that inflation has escaped negative territory, in line with the BoE’s latest meeting minutes. This could support the pound. • Germany: ZEW survey for December. The current situation index is expected to decline slightly, while the expectations index is forecast to rise, which could support the common currency a bit. • US: The CPI data for November is expected to show that the inflation rate accelerated. The Empire state manufacturing index for December and the NAHB housing market index for the same month are also due to be released. • Canada: Manufacturing sales for October are expected to fall but at a slower pace than previously. This could weaken CAD. • Speakers: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz.
• RBA releases monetary policy minutes
• At this meeting, the Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged amid signs of improvement of business conditions and a somewhat stronger growth in employment.
• In the minutes of the meeting, the Bank reiterated that the exchange rate was adjusting to significant declines in commodity prices and boosting demand for domestic production, which had translated to stronger employment growth. Their upbeat view was confirmed some days following the meeting by the Australian employment report, which showed the biggest increase in net employment during November in over 15 years and a decrease in the unemployment rate.
• Even though the Bank maintained the likelihood for further easing, the overall tone was neutral and the upbeat view over the economy supported AUD briefly.
• Today:
• Sweden: Riksbank monetary policy meeting. Expectations are for the Bank to remain on hold due to economic activity strengthening and inflation showing a clear upward trend. Moreover, the expected SEK appreciation against the EUR following the December 3rd ECB meeting did not materialize, which leaves room for the Bank to wait a bit more before acting again. As a result, the focus will shift on the statement accompanying the decision for any signs that Sweden’s economy is gaining momentum, which could support SEK a bit.
• UK: The CPI data for November is forecast to show that inflation has escaped negative territory, in line with the BoE’s latest meeting minutes. This could support the pound.
• Germany: ZEW survey for December. The current situation index is expected to decline slightly, while the expectations index is forecast to rise, which could support the common currency a bit.
• US: The CPI data for November is expected to show that the inflation rate accelerated. The Empire state manufacturing index for December and the NAHB housing market index for the same month are also due to be released.
• Canada: Manufacturing sales for October are expected to fall but at a slower pace than previously. This could weaken CAD.
• Speakers: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz.
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