IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 14/12/2015
December 14, 2015 11:53 am
• Japan’s Tankan survey eases pressure on the BoJ • The BoJ’s favorite measure of economic activity, the Tankan survey, beat expectations in Q4, which could suggest that Japanese companies have been able to cope with the weak domestic consumption and the Chinese slowdown. This could ease pressure on the BoJ to act. • According to the survey, capital spending is expected to increase by 10.8%, a slowdown from the previous quarter, which suggests some companies are delaying investment. • Today: • Eurozone: Industrial production for October is expected to increase. This could support EUR. • Sweden: PES unemployment rate for November. • This week: • Tuesday: Sweden’s Riksbank monetary policy meeting. Expectations are for the Bank to remain on hold due to economic activity strengthening and inflation showing a clear upward trend. As for indicators, we get the November CPI data for the UK and the US. Both are expected to have accelerated. • Wednesday: FOMC meeting: The market expectations are for a 25bps rate increase. With around 80% implied market probability of the first rate hike by the FOMC taking place, the market attention will be turned to the “dot plot” and the pace of future rate hikes. An aggressive liftoff path, within short intervals could prove bullish for USD. The UK employment report is also due to be released. • Thursday: Norges Bank policy meeting. Expectations are for the Bank to remain on hold, but given the low oil prices NOK could weaken further. • Friday: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. The Bank is expected to remain on hold. As a result, the focus will be once again on the press conference held by Gov. Kuroda following the decision. It will be interesting to see if he reiterates his upbeat view over Japan’s economy.
• Japan’s Tankan survey eases pressure on the BoJ
• The BoJ’s favorite measure of economic activity, the Tankan survey, beat expectations in Q4, which could suggest that Japanese companies have been able to cope with the weak domestic consumption and the Chinese slowdown. This could ease pressure on the BoJ to act.
• According to the survey, capital spending is expected to increase by 10.8%, a slowdown from the previous quarter, which suggests some companies are delaying investment.
• Today:
• Eurozone: Industrial production for October is expected to increase. This could support EUR.
• Sweden: PES unemployment rate for November.
• This week:
• Tuesday: Sweden’s Riksbank monetary policy meeting. Expectations are for the Bank to remain on hold due to economic activity strengthening and inflation showing a clear upward trend. As for indicators, we get the November CPI data for the UK and the US. Both are expected to have accelerated.
• Wednesday: FOMC meeting: The market expectations are for a 25bps rate increase. With around 80% implied market probability of the first rate hike by the FOMC taking place, the market attention will be turned to the “dot plot” and the pace of future rate hikes. An aggressive liftoff path, within short intervals could prove bullish for USD. The UK employment report is also due to be released.
• Thursday: Norges Bank policy meeting. Expectations are for the Bank to remain on hold, but given the low oil prices NOK could weaken further.
• Friday: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. The Bank is expected to remain on hold. As a result, the focus will be once again on the press conference held by Gov. Kuroda following the decision. It will be interesting to see if he reiterates his upbeat view over Japan’s economy.
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