IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 14/01/2016
January 14, 2016 9:53 am
Main points for Today
Equity market carnage continues • The start of the earnings season in the stock markets has done nothing yet to reverse the overall risk-off environment. • Having already a rough start for the year, with China at the forefront of developments, US stock markets continue to decline with no clear signs for a recovery. • Although only a small portion of companies have reported earnings so far, the results were overall disappointing.
The highlight of the day: Bank of England policy meeting • No change in policy is expected, while consensus is that the vote will once again be split 8-1. • With the British pound hovering near its lowest levels since June 2010 vs USD, the falling commodity prices to which the UK equity market is exposed and the concern over the “Brexit”, the minutes will give us the opportunity to get additional insights about members’ views on the UK economic outlook. • Any hints on just how far the committee’s expectations for the first increase in the Bank rate have been pushed back, is likely to determine the pound’s near-term direction.
Today: • Sweden: CPI and CPIF for December. Both rates are forecast to have remained unchanged from the month before. If the inflation rate fails to pick up, or if we see a negative surprise in the CPI rate, we see a possibility for the Bank to intervene in the FX market to weaken SEK. • Eurozone: ECB December meeting minutes. Even though they have never been a driver of EUR since they started being released, they could be important this time. Given that at this meeting, the Bank cut the deposit facility rate and extended the QE program. We will look through the minutes for further hints if the Bank is willing to expand further its stimulus program. • US: Initial jobless claims for the week ended on the 8th of January are forecast to have decreased from the previous week, while the 4-week moving average is expected to have increased slightly. • Speakers: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speak.
Main points for Today
Equity market carnage continues
• The start of the earnings season in the stock markets has done nothing yet to reverse the overall risk-off environment.
• Having already a rough start for the year, with China at the forefront of developments, US stock markets continue to decline with no clear signs for a recovery.
• Although only a small portion of companies have reported earnings so far, the results were overall disappointing.
The highlight of the day: Bank of England policy meeting
• No change in policy is expected, while consensus is that the vote will once again be split 8-1.
• With the British pound hovering near its lowest levels since June 2010 vs USD, the falling commodity prices to which the UK equity market is exposed and the concern over the “Brexit”, the minutes will give us the opportunity to get additional insights about members’ views on the UK economic outlook.
• Any hints on just how far the committee’s expectations for the first increase in the Bank rate have been pushed back, is likely to determine the pound’s near-term direction.
Today:
• Sweden: CPI and CPIF for December. Both rates are forecast to have remained unchanged from the month before. If the inflation rate fails to pick up, or if we see a negative surprise in the CPI rate, we see a possibility for the Bank to intervene in the FX market to weaken SEK.
• Eurozone: ECB December meeting minutes. Even though they have never been a driver of EUR since they started being released, they could be important this time. Given that at this meeting, the Bank cut the deposit facility rate and extended the QE program. We will look through the minutes for further hints if the Bank is willing to expand further its stimulus program.
• US: Initial jobless claims for the week ended on the 8th of January are forecast to have decreased from the previous week, while the 4-week moving average is expected to have increased slightly.
• Speakers: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speak.
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