IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 04/01/2016
January 4, 2016 10:48 am
Main points for Today:
• Markets in a risk-off sentiment in the first trading session of the year • Tensions in the Middle East boost demand for the safe-haven JPY, CHF and Gold in the first trading session of 2016. • Investors’ risk appetite fell at the start of the year after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric spurred sectarian protests and violence in the Middle East. This seems to have sparked a serious diplomatic rift as Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran on Sunday and gave 48 hours to Iranian diplomats to leave the country. • On top of that, Chinese data showed that manufacturing activity stayed below 50 for the 10th straight month in December. • The risk-off environment hit shares across Asia, with NIKKEI 225 down more than 3%. This could roll into the European markets and push DAX down. In addition, the tensions in the Middle East could support oil and oil related currencies like CAD and NOK. • Today: • France, Germany & Eurozone: Final manufacturing PMIs for December. As usual the final forecasts are expects to confirm the initial estimates, thus market reaction could be limited at these releases. • UK: The manufacturing PMI for December is expected to remain unchanged. • Germany: The preliminary CPI rate for December is expected to have accelerated. • US: The ISM manufacturing PMI for December is expected to increase, but remain below the crucial 50 line. • This week: • Tuesday: Eurozone’s CPI estimate for December is forecast to have accelerated. • Wednesday: The US ADP employment report is expected to have come close to the 200k mark in December. Also, the Fed will release the minutes of its December 15-16 FOMC meeting. • Thursday: No major events or indicators are due to be released. • Friday is NFP day: Market expectations are for an increase in US payrolls of 200k, down from the 211k in November. Overall, a strong US employment report could encourage USD-bulls to add to their positions.
Main points for Today:
• Markets in a risk-off sentiment in the first trading session of the year
• Tensions in the Middle East boost demand for the safe-haven JPY, CHF and Gold in the first trading session of 2016.
• Investors’ risk appetite fell at the start of the year after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric spurred sectarian protests and violence in the Middle East. This seems to have sparked a serious diplomatic rift as Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran on Sunday and gave 48 hours to Iranian diplomats to leave the country.
• On top of that, Chinese data showed that manufacturing activity stayed below 50 for the 10th straight month in December.
• The risk-off environment hit shares across Asia, with NIKKEI 225 down more than 3%. This could roll into the European markets and push DAX down. In addition, the tensions in the Middle East could support oil and oil related currencies like CAD and NOK.
• Today:
• France, Germany & Eurozone: Final manufacturing PMIs for December. As usual the final forecasts are expects to confirm the initial estimates, thus market reaction could be limited at these releases.
• UK: The manufacturing PMI for December is expected to remain unchanged.
• Germany: The preliminary CPI rate for December is expected to have accelerated.
• US: The ISM manufacturing PMI for December is expected to increase, but remain below the crucial 50 line.
• This week:
• Tuesday: Eurozone’s CPI estimate for December is forecast to have accelerated.
• Wednesday: The US ADP employment report is expected to have come close to the 200k mark in December. Also, the Fed will release the minutes of its December 15-16 FOMC meeting.
• Thursday: No major events or indicators are due to be released.
• Friday is NFP day: Market expectations are for an increase in US payrolls of 200k, down from the 211k in November. Overall, a strong US employment report could encourage USD-bulls to add to their positions.
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