FOMC policy decision: Waiting for December?
• FOMC almost certain to keep borrowing costs unchanged today.
• All the market action will come from the language in the meeting statement.
• We expect the FOMC to signal that a rate hike is imminent, preparing markets for Dec.
• Such “hawkish” language could reverse some of the dollar’s recent losses on the news.

Equities slide, safe havens rally as Trump gains momentum
• Markets turned their focus back to the US election race yesterday.
• Polls show that Clinton’s lead is shrinking. Outcome now almost too-close-to-call.
• US stocks, USD and MXN slumped, while gold & JPY rallied due to this uncertainty.
• Markets to remain focused on incoming polls as we approach Election Day (8th Nov.).
• If the polls remain this close, or tighten further, expect similar market reactions.

Today:
• France, Germany & Eurozone: Final manufacturing PMIs for Oct.
• UK: Construction PMI for Oct. is exp. to decline. This could hurt GBP.
• US: ADP employment report for Oct. is exp. to show another month of solid employment gains. If so, it could raise speculation for a solid NFP figure too, and support USD.

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