IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 25/05/2017
May 25, 2017 9:24 amVideo
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OPEC and non-OPEC meeting: Extension, deeper cuts, or both?
• The Saudi and Russian energy ministers said they have agreed to a 9-month extension.
• Considering that many other oil ministers have also expressed their support for 9 months, we think that most (if not all) of the good news are already priced into oil.
• Thus, in case we only get a 9-month extension, further upside in oil prices may be limited.
• For prices to rally significantly, producers may need to surprise the market by extending for a longer time period (a full year for example) and/or deeper cuts in volume.
BoC stands pat, maintains a neutral tone
• BoC remained on hold. The statement was very neutral, indicating that although uncertainties remain, recent developments have been encouraging.
• Perhaps due to the absence of any really concerned comments, CAD surged after the decision.
• In case oil producers deliver more than the market expects today, CAD could continue to gain.
FOMC minutes: Prudent to wait for evidence that GDP slowdown is transitory
• The minutes were neutral overall. Key point was that if data evolve as the Fed expects, another hike would “soon be appropriate”.
• But USD slid a bit. Possibly because officials wanted evidence the slowdown in GDP was transitory.
• A June rate hike remains on the table, but a lot may depend on incoming data.
As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• UK: 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP. Focus may be on business investment. A soft print could hurt GBP.
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