Is the Bank of Canada going to shift to a dovish bias?
• BoC is expected to stand pat (14:00 GMT). Focus will be on the language of the statement.
• The key message we got at the last meeting was that data are improving, but the Bank was still very worried about the trade outlook.
• Shortly after that gathering, the US imposed tariffs on Canada. Some data have softened as well.
• Thus, we see the case for the BoC to retain, if not amplify further its concerned message.
• That could hurt CAD, but bear in mind that tomorrow’s OPEC outcome may also be critical for the currency.

FOMC minutes: Is a June rate hike on the cards?
• In the US, the Fed will release the minutes of the May policy gathering (18:00 GMT).
• Markets will be looking for signals on whether the next hike is likely to come as early as June.
• In case policymakers send such signals, USD could gain, but perhaps only modestly, since a June rate hike is already priced in by 83%.
• On the other hand, a more cautious tone by the Fed may come as a surprise, and could lead to a notable negative reaction in USD.

As for the rest of today’s highlights:
• US: Existing home sales for April (14:00 GMT) though this is usually not a major market mover.
• Speakers: ECB President Draghi (12:45 GMT) and Executive Board Member Praet (08:30 GMT).

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