IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 31/03/2017
March 31, 2017 9:05 am
USD extends its recent gains • The US dollar rose yesterday. Likely reasons: Upbeat comments from Fed’s Dudley (voter) and an upward revision in GDP for Q4 2016. • Dudley said that the risks for both growth and inflation may be gradually shifting to the upside. • The market may have paid extra attention to him as his comments boosted dramatically the probability for a March rate hike a few weeks ago. • The focus now turns to today’s core PCE data, as they may be critical for the Fed’s next move. • Also, watch out for Trump’s executive order aimed at “identifying trade abuses”.
Today’s highlights: • Germany: Retail sales for February (06:00 GMT) and unemployment rate for March (08:00 GMT). • UK: Final estimate of Q4 GDP (09:30 GMT) but unlikely to be a major market mover. • Eurozone: Preliminary CPI for March (09:00 GMT). Headline rate is expected to decline, core rate to stay unchanged. May prove somewhat EUR-negative (but focus will be on any surprise in the core!). • US: Core PCE price index for February (12:30 GMT), though no forecast is available. Also, personal income & spending for the same month. Both are expected to have risen at the same pace as previously. Market focus may be primarily on the core PCE. Our view is for an unchanged PCE rate, with risks skewed to the downside. In case of a decline, USD-negative. • Canada: GDP growth for January (12:30 GMT). • Speakers: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.
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USD extends its recent gains
• The US dollar rose yesterday. Likely reasons: Upbeat comments from Fed’s Dudley (voter) and an upward revision in GDP for Q4 2016.
• Dudley said that the risks for both growth and inflation may be gradually shifting to the upside.
• The market may have paid extra attention to him as his comments boosted dramatically the probability for a March rate hike a few weeks ago.
• The focus now turns to today’s core PCE data, as they may be critical for the Fed’s next move.
• Also, watch out for Trump’s executive order aimed at “identifying trade abuses”.
Today’s highlights:
• Germany: Retail sales for February (06:00 GMT) and unemployment rate for March (08:00 GMT).
• UK: Final estimate of Q4 GDP (09:30 GMT) but unlikely to be a major market mover.
• Eurozone: Preliminary CPI for March (09:00 GMT). Headline rate is expected to decline, core rate to stay unchanged. May prove somewhat EUR-negative (but focus will be on any surprise in the core!).
• US: Core PCE price index for February (12:30 GMT), though no forecast is available. Also, personal income & spending for the same month. Both are expected to have risen at the same pace as previously. Market focus may be primarily on the core PCE. Our view is for an unchanged PCE rate, with risks skewed to the downside. In case of a decline, USD-negative.
• Canada: GDP growth for January (12:30 GMT).
• Speakers: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.
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To get the latest Forex trading news you should:
• Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO
• Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX
• Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx
• Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN
• Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal
• Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal
• Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU
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