Is another referendum brewing in Scotland?
• Scotland’s First Minister Sturgeon said that she and her colleagues will start talking with the EU about Scotland remaining in the EU.
• She added that a second Scottish independence referendum is “highly likely”.
• If such a step is officially announced in the foreseeable future, we could see the pound plunge even more on political uncertainties.

Japan intensifies intervention warnings
• PM Abe has instructed Finance Minister Aso to take steps in the FX market if necessary.
• Likelihood for further BoJ easing in July has risen. If JPY strengthens rapidly, we could see FX intervention even before that.

Today:
• Speakers: ECB “Forum on Central Banking” kicks off with a welcome address by President Mario Draghi. UK Finance Minister George Osborne speaks as well.

This week:
• Wednesday: Germany’s prel. CPI for Jun. US personal income & spending, both for May.
• Thursday: Eurozone’s prel. CPI rate for Jun. is exp. to rise.
• Friday: Japan’s Tankan survey for Q2 and CPI data for May. China’s official & Caixin manufacturing PMIs for Jun. From the US, ISM manufacturing PMI for Jun.

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