Yen gains on news of the fiscal package size
• JPY recovered some of its recent losses following reports on the size of the government’s planned fiscal stimulus package.
• Reports indicated a 6 tln yen package. This may have disappointed investors, as market chatter suggested expectations of 10-20 tln yen.
• Given that much of the speculation for BoJ easing on Friday is already priced in, JPY could continue strengthening until the meeting.
• The currency’s direction will depend on the quantity and quality of any stimulus the BoJ introduces.
• Aggressive easing is needed to weaken the yen materially.

Today:
• US: Prel. Markit services PMI for Jul. and new home sales for Jun. Both exp. to have risen somewhat. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for May is exp. to accelerate. CB consumer confidence index is exp. to decline. Net-net, these could support USD.

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