French election: Macron and Le Pen advance to the second round
• EUR opened with a positive gap against its major peers this week, as Macron and Le Pen advanced to the 2nd round of the French election.
• Since Macron is leading Le Pen in practically every poll for the 2nd round, investors likely began to discount an eventual Le Pen loss from now.
• Risk appetitive appears to have recovered, as JPY tumbled after the results.
• European equity indices may open with positive gaps today.
• As for the euro, it could stay supported in the next few days on this outcome.
• The risk to this view are new polls for the 2nd round showing Le Pen closing the gap on Macron.

Today:
• Germany: Ifo survey for April (08:00 GMT).
• Speakers: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (15:30 GMT).

As for the rest of the week:
• Wed: Australia’s CPI for Q1. Both the headline and the trimmed mean rates are expected to have risen, which could prove positive for AUD.
• Thu: BoJ & ECB policy decisions. Both Banks are expected to remain on hold. Also, Germany’s preliminary CPI data for April and US durable goods orders for March.
• Fri: Japan’s CPI for March and Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for April. Also, 1st estimate of Q1 GDP from UK and US.

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