“Brexit”: Is “Remain” gathering momentum?
• FX markets opened with a tone similar to Friday’s late trading. Higher GBP and a risk-on tone.
• GBP/USD (and all major FX pairs) opened with a gap after polls over the weekend indicated a small lead for “Remain”.
• Also, a leading “Leave” politician switched sides, something that added to “Remain” momentum.
• GBP is likely to have a very volatile week. Liquidity may be less than usual, causing movements to be sharper than previously.

Today:
• Speakers: Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.

This week:
• Tuesday: Testimony by Fed Chair Yellen. We expect her to largely reiterate her comments from the June FOMC. RBA Jun. meeting minutes. Germany’s ZEW survey for Jun.
• Wednesday: No major events or indicators.
• Thursday: Britain’s EU membership referendum. Results due Friday morning. A vote to leave could have a large negative impact on GBP and to a lesser degree EUR. A remain vote could offer a relief bounce to GBP and a smaller boost to EUR. Norges Bank meeting.
• Friday: German Ifo survey for Jun. US durable goods orders for May are exp. to decline.

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